We have our first and last Game 7 of the first round of the 2026 NHL Playoffs, with the Lightning playing host to the Canadiens on Sunday night at 6:00 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Tampa Bay is a -170 home favorite on the Moneyline, and the game’s total is set at O/U 5.5 goals.

Below, I’ll provide a Lightning vs. Canadiens Game 7 prediction and pick.

Lightning vs. Canadiens Game 7 prediction, preview

Game 6 went about exactly as you’d expect –– a 1-0 overtime win for the Lightning, which marks the fourth game of this series that required an overtime period. Now, it’s time for a classic do-or-die Game 7 situation in Tampa Bay tonight. Andrei Vasilevskiy reminded us all who he was, stopping all 30 shots and securing his 10th career playoff shutout, and he’s hard to bet against in a Game 7 situation. In fact, it’s hard to bet against this Lightning team at all, as it is no stranger to win-or-go-home scenarios and has a clear edge in offense, defense and goaltending.

While that all remains true about the Lightning, nothing has really separated these two teams this postseason in terms of metrics. Game 1 featured five total power play goals, but these teams have gone a combined 4-for-40 on the power play since then. This has resulted in practically only 5v5 production for the past five games, and each team has netted nine 5v5 goals and ranks eighth (TB) and ninth (MTL) in 5v5 expected goal percentage. Jakub Dobes has been incredible this series and especially the past two games, stopping 70-of-73 shots for a .959 save percentage. It’s a shame that this series was a first-round matchup because both of these teams deserve to advance.

Lightning vs. Canadiens Game 7 pick, best bet

Best Bet: UNDER 5.5 Total Goals (-170)

It’s a bit juiced at this point, but the under has cashed in every game besides Game 1, and these goaltenders have been absolutely locked in lately.