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We’ve got a nine-game slate for Monday’s MLB action.
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $200K Rally Cap [$50K to 1st]
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays ($10,800) — Brown and Dylan Cease are the most expensive pitchers on the slate and are going head-to-head. Both of their profiles are similar in that they miss bats but can miss the strike zone at times. The matchups are similar as well, as the Astros and Blue Jays don’t strike out often. Houston has more power (sixth in ISO vs. 25th for Toronto) and is 13th in wRC+, while Toronto is 21st. That’s why I side with Brown in this one. Brown has made only three starts this season due to injury. In two starts back in March, he put up 23.7 and 29.7 FPTS. In his return to action last week, he went 5.2 innings and finished with 21.2 FPTS. Brown averages 96.2 mph on the fastball with a 23.4% K-BB%. The average exit velocity is only 84.5 mph while the barrel rate is a minuscule 3.2%.
Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians ($6,500) — The stats are not pretty for Kay, as the FIP is 5.32, K-BB% is only 8.4% and he’s allowed 11 home runs in 70.1 innings. He’s put up fewer than 10 FPTS six times this season with three of those in the negatives. On the flip side, he’s gone over 20 FPTS four times. The fastball averages 96 mph and he put up 21 FPTS against the vaunted Dodgers offense two starts ago. This game is at home, where he’s been much better – 4.29 FIP vs. 6.54 on the road – and the Guardians offense is not a potent one, as Cleveland is 24th in ISO and 23rd in wRC+, and those numbers are with Jose Ramirez, who is out with an injury.
Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($4,400) — Burleson is slashing .281/.344/.483 with 13 home runs, 39 runs, 54 RBI and two stolen bases in 320 plate appearances. The average exit velocity is 91.6 mph while the barrel rate is 11.2%. Against right-handed pitching, the ISO is .266 with a 174 wRC+. Merrill Kelly has struggled against everyone this season. Against lefties, the K-BB% is -0.6% while the FIP is 7.22. 10 of the 15 home runs allowed have come off the bat of a lefty.
Eric Wagaman, New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs ($2,300) — Wagaman was called up on May 26th. Since then, he’s appeared in nine games and accrued 15 plate appearances with one home run. The average exit velocity is 92.3 mph with a barrel rate of 12.5%. He’s mainly out there to face lefties and has a 226 wRC+ and .333 ISO. Granted, it’s a small sample size of 12 plate appearances. Shota Imanaga has a 4.68 FIP and 12 of the 15 home runs allowed have come off righties.
Jake Bauers, Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds ($4,900) — Bauers has 13 home runs, 41 runs, 46 RBI and five stolen bases in 258 plate appearances. The average exit velocity is 92.6 mph while the barrel rate is 13.2%. The bat speed is 76.9 mph! Against right-handed pitching, the ISO is .258 with a 151 wRC+. 11 of the 13 home runs hit have come off a righty. Brady Singer has a 6.15 FIP in 66 innings. The average exit velocity is 91.3 mph with a 10.7% barrel rate. 11 of the 17 home runs allowed have come off the bat of a lefty. This game is also in Great American Ball Park, rated the second-best park for lefty home runs.
Tristan Peters, Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians ($2,300) — Peters bats towards the bottom of the lineup and isn’t exciting at all with an 86.1 mph average exit velocity, 4.6% barrel rate and 69.5 mph bat speed. That said, every night when perusing box scores, he’s usually contributing something. A hit here. A stolen base there. He has three home runs, four stolen bases, 23 runs and 22 RBI in 210 plate appearances. He’s been shut out from producing FPTS only 25 times this season while putting up double-digit FPTS 15 times. Against right-handed pitching, the ISO is .170 with a 139 wRC+. Gavin Williams has a 21.8% K-BB% against lefties, but 10 of the 15 home runs have come off the bat of a lefty while the overall average exit velocity allowed is 91.3 mph with a 12.8% barrel rate.
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