Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics

I can give you trends that will tell you to bet either side of this double digit spread in Boston, as the Celtics look to close out the 76ers in Game 5. The C’s dominated Game 4 in Philadelphia, and generally haven’t been able to carry that domination into the following game over the last few postseasons. We saw it in this series, when the Sixers stole Game 2 after losing Game 1 by over 30 points. Dating back to the second round of the 2024 postseason, Boston is now 0-10-1 ATS following a double digit win. That would tell you to back Philly here.

However, the Celtics have also been dominant in close out Game 5’s at home during the same span. The Celtics have had four opportunities to end a series in Boston in Game 5 since the 2024 postseason began. They are 4-0 in those games, winning by an average of 24.5 points — a 31 point win over the Magic last season, an 18-point win over the Mavericks to clinch the 2024 NBA Championship, and wins by 15 and 34 over the Cavs and Heat during that same title run. The last time the Celtics had a home game to close out the 76ers in the postseason was in 2023, and they beat Philly by 24 points. That would tell you to lay it with the Celts.

Ultimately, I’m staying away from the points, but will back the Celtics to close this one out in another form. Boston has dominated the first quarter in this series, leading in all four games (including the Game 2 loss) by an average of 9.75 points. Joel Embiid’s return didn’t help the Sixers … if anything it slowed them down, trailing by 16 points after the first quarter.

I’ll back the Celtics to lead after the first quarter and win the game (which is a specific market under “Game Lines”), which is priced at a reasonable -145.

NBA Pick: Celtics 1Q/Fulltime (-145)

Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks

The Knicks will look to get a pivotal Game 5 win at Madison Square Garden as a sizable home favorite in a 2-2 series. I lean to New York to get the job done, but feel we have a stronger bet by going to the player props. OG Anunoby has been terrific in the series, and is only improving as the games go on. He’s averaging over 20 points in the series to go with no fewer than eight rebounds in any game.

Anunoby is 3-1 to the over on his Points + Rebounds prop, including finishing with 38 combined in Game 3 and 32 combined in Game 4. OG has played at least 37 minutes in each game this series, and I wouldn’t expect that to change in the most critical game yet. I’ll back Anunoby to continue to produce as a scorer and rebounding in Game 5 at MSG.

NBA Pick: OG Anunoby OVER 23.5 P/R (-121)

Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs

Scoot Henderson was injured for the majority of the season, but has been a difference-maker for Portland since he entered the lineup in February. After ramping up for a couple of months, Henderson has clearly been playoff-ready, and burst onto the scene in this series against the Spurs. He exceeded his points prop in the first three games of the series with plenty of margin, finishing with point totals of 18, 31, and 21.

However, Game 4 was a disaster for Scoot, who had a cold shooting start and then got into foul trouble. He finished the game scoreless, but I believe that gives up a buy-low opportunity in a game where the Blazers are playing for their season. After playing less than 25 minutes per game in the regular season, Henderson is averaging 32 minutes in the playoffs. That uptick should continue to help his scoring. Scoot dropped 20 points against the Spurs the only time he faced them in the regular season, giving me more confidence in writing off Game 4 as a fluke. I’ll take the discount on Henderson’s points prop in Game 5.

NBA Pick: Scoot Henderson 15+ Points (+110)

Another member of the Blazers seeing his role increase in the postseason is Jrue Holiday. The veteran guard played 29.4 minutes per game during the regular season, which we’ve seen ramp up significantly in the playoffs — 38.3 minutes per game. Such a large boost in playing time obviously results in a statistical increase, and I’m not sure the prop market has caught up yet.

Holiday is averaging 18.5 points, 7.3 assists and 5.3 rebounds in this series, going 3-1 to the combo props of his P/R/A and just R/A. With the season on the line, I’ll bundle them all together and say we get a strong effort from Holiday, who was brought to Portland for his playoff experience on a young team.

NBA Pick: Jrue Holiday OVER 27.5 P/R/A (-125)