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Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple.
With that in mind, here are my top three NRFI picks for Monday’s full slate of MLB action.
In one of the early games that starts just before 7:00 p.m. ET, the Phillies and Marlins finish their wraparound four-game series. The Phillies have taken two of the first three games in the series and five of their last six games overall.
The Marlins will look to earn a split by giving the ball to Janson Junk, who blanked the Dodgers for six innings in his last start and lowered his ERA to 3.00 on the season. He has allowed a first-inning run in just one of his six outings this season and not in his last three games coming into this matchup with the Phillies, who have been one of the worst teams for NRFI this season, which is one reason why the odds on this matchup are close to even money.
On the other side, the Phillies will turn to Aaron Nola, who has a strong 73.5% NRFI rate in his career, but has allowed a run in the first inning of two of his six starts this year. The Marlins are slightly above league average for NRFI overall, with an NRFI hit in 18 of their 34 games this season (53%), while the league average this season sits right at 50%.
Nola has a 3.27 ERA in his 12 appearances at Marlins Park giving up four runs and taking the loss in each of his last two outings in Miami. He has a rough 6.03 ERA this season, although his 3.70 xFIP shows some of that may be due to below-average batted ball luck. If he can keep the Fish quiet for one frame, he an pay off this NRFI hit, though, and I think both he and Junk have a solid shot of starting the game with a blank first inning. This is a close one, but I love the value at almost even money.
In another four-game divisional series wrapping up on Monday, the Orioles send Shane Baz to the bump against Cam Schlittler in the Bronx. The Yankees are looking to complete a four-game sweep and have to feel great with Schlittler on the mound.
The 25-year-old righty is 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA and 1.54 FIP through his first six starts this season. He has delivered a clean first frame in 14 of his 21 career starts (67%) and has been even better this year, with six clean first innings for an 85.7% conversion rate. The Orioles have scored a run in the first inning only five times this season, tied for the second-lowest rate in the majors, and as a result, they have the second-best NRFI rate of any team in the MLB.
Baltimore will turn to Shane Baz, who is coming off one of his best starts to an inconsistent beginning of the season. Baz gave up just one run in 5 2/3 innings against the Astros in his last start and has converted a clean first inning in five of his six starts this season and in 80% of his career starts. Shutting out the Yankees for even an inning is never easy, but he has plenty of experience facing them from his time with the Rays. The Yankees beat him up both times they faced him last season, but that was at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. At Yankee Stadium, Baz has allowed just one run in five career innings, so he could work a clean first inning and continue Baltimore’s trend of being one of the best NRFI teams in the league.
The White Sox and Angels meet for the second straight week after the teams squared off in Chicago last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday’s game was a matchup between Davis Martin and Jose Soriano, who go head-to-head again this Monday, facing each other for a second straight start. Martin triumphed in their first head-to-head meeting while Soriano took his first loss of the season.
NRFI hit in their first meeting, and both pitchers have had very strong starts to the season. Let’s start with the home team and Jose Soriano. He has only allowed a first-run inning in one of his seven starts and has worked to an impressive 0.84 ERA and 2.89 FIP over his 42 2/3 innings. He gave up three runs in five innings to the White Sox in his loss last week, but he’ll look to bounce back at home, where he has allowed just one run in 18 2/3 innings this year.
I highlighted Martin’s strong start in my top value plays for this Monday, and he has allowed a first-inning run just once in his six starts this season. The 29-year-old righty has allowed only one run in each of his last three outings, and even though his FIP and xERA indicate that he’s due for some regression, he should be able to get through the first frame of this rematch with the Angels.
The White Sox are just above league average in NRFI, while the Angels are just below league average. However, with these two young starters off to strong starts this season, I like the odds for this NRFI as the two teams square off this week in Anaheim.
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