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Sunday afternoon is jam-packed with MLB action as 28 of the 30 teams wrap up their weekend series. (The Astros and Mariners finish their series on Monday.) After the early wave of games, four matchups are on the scoreboard for 4:00 p.m. ET or later. The Guardians and Braves close out the day on Sunday Night Baseball, after three games from the West Coast in San Diego, Seattle and Los Angeles start at 4:10. Let’s swing for the fences and try to pinpoint some strong options to consider based on the matchups, environment and current form of some sluggers for this Sunday afternoon on DraftKings Sportsbook.
By their nature, home run props are long-shot plays, but when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the best power hitters are long-shot plays to homer on any single day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s later matchups: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jose Altuve and Matt Olson.
There could be some rain in Los Angeles, and with strong starting pitchers on the mound, let’s head to Petco Park to start the NL West action in our home run props this Sunday. The Rockies swept the Astros but have lost three straight to the Padres, and Tatis and the Friars are looking to finish off the mop (four-game sweep) as they take on Kyle Freeland. Tatis is 7-for-30 (.233) in his career against Freeland with four doubles and a home run in their past meetings.
Tatis is still searching for his first MLB home run this season. He is hitting .228 (13-for-57) but has an impressive 72.1% hard-hit rate. In his last two games against the Rockies, he has seven hard-hit events, making hard contact every time he put the ball in play. He’s crushing the ball, and even though the results haven’t shown it yet, he has the potential to get one out of Petco Park on Sunday afternoon. He’s a great value since he still has plenty of power potential, as he showcased for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic:
The Astros are in Seattle in another one of the late afternoon matchups, and they’re looking to snap a five-game losing streak after getting swept by the Rockies and losing the first two games in this series in Seattle. They’ll be facing Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert, who has struggled in his first three starts this season, allowing 10 runs in 16 2/3 innings.
One hitter in the ‘Stros lineup with success against Gilbert in the past is veteran Jose Altuve, who is 13-for-37 with six doubles and two homers in their past meetings. Altuve’s odds of going deep are extremely long, but he brings great value since he already hit two dingers this season, hitting .302 with a .417 wOBA and a 41.5% hard-hit rate. His hard-hit rate was under 32% in each of the last four seasons, so he’s hitting the ball with much more authority this season. He hit both his homers this year at home against the Red Sox on March 30, but he has five hard-hit balls in his last three games.
The breeze will be blowing in on Sunday Night Baseball in Atlanta, but Olson has enough power to smash it right through the wind. The temperature is forecast to be near 80 degrees, too, so the warmth should help the ball carry.
Olson homered on Friday in my home run props, and he has four homers in his first 15 games, thanks to an 18.9% barrel rate.
Olson and the Braves will take on Tanner Bibee in the series finale. Bibee is 0-1 in his first three starts with a 3.29 ERA. He gave up three homers in his first start of the season against Seattle, all to lefties. Lefties have only collected six hits against him, but those three homers continue a trend from last year. Lefties typically have hit him for more power, and Olson will look to take him yard on Sunday night to finish these home run props with a blast.
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