Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Tuesday’s MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Pittsburgh Pirates.
An interleague clash between postseason hopefuls is on tap tonight at PNC Park. The Mariners (40-39) have clung to first place in the wide-open AL West. Still, Seattle needs to start racking up wins if it wants to be viewed as a World Series contender. As for the Pirates (39-39), it’s been one of the better seasons in recent franchise history. Can Pittsburgh take down an American League contender at home?
The Mariners are favorites (-131) over the Pirates, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Seattle and Pittsburgh on DraftKings Sportsbook.
George Kirby will get the nod this evening for the visitors. It’s been a decent, albeit unspectacular, season for the right-hander. Through 90.0 innings pitched, he’s notched a 4.10 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 79 strikeouts (7.9 K/9). Interesting enough, he’s been more effective on the road (3.44 ERA) than at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park (4.56 ERA). Regardless, the 28-year-old still sits within the 84th percentile in fastball velocity (96.8 MPH), chase rate (34.3%), walk rate (5.6%) and ground ball rate (50.5%). However, the former All-Star has been generous when it comes to allowing base hits (9.7 H/9).
On the other side, Pittsburgh has surpassed all expectations at the plate. The team is averaging 5.01 runs per game this season, fifth-most in the majors. In addition, the Buccos rank inside the top five in batting average (.255), on-base percentage (.335), wOBA (.329) and wOBAcon (.387). Offseason pickups Brandon Lowe (126 wRC+) and Ryan O’Hearn (116 wRC+) have given the middle of the lineup a boost. Unfortunately, key pieces Oneil Cruz (hand) and Konnor Griffin (forearm) are on the injured list. Regardless, this Pirates offense is loaded with depth. Among active players with 200+ plate appearances, five have a wRC+ above 100. That includes outfielder Bryan Reynolds, currently slashing .287/.400/.484 with 11 home runs and 51 RBIs.
Pittsburgh will entrust Mitch Keller tonight on the mound. The former All-Star hasn’t been the most reliable in 2026, delivering a 4.92 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 65 strikeouts (7.1 K/9). Over his previous four outings, the righty has coughed up 19 earned runs over 18.0 innings (9.50 ERA). Subpar statistics shouldn’t come as a surprise when looking over Keller’s advanced metrics. He sits within the 25th percentile or worse in xERA (5.00), xBA (.285), whiff rate (20.4%) and strikeout rate (18.4%). Keller, much like Kirby, has also been worse when pitching at home. Over eight appearances at PNC Park this season, he’s recorded a dismal 5.77 ERA.
Seattle’s offense hasn’t been anything to write home about. That’s due in large part to the struggles of superstar catcher Cal Raleigh (64 wRC+). Injuries to key bats in Brendan Donovan (144 wRC+) and Randy Arozarena (139 wRC+) certainly haven’t helped. Still, this group isn’t hopeless at the plate. The Mariners have clobbered 98 home runs this season, tied for the eighth-most in the majors. Regardless, they’ve scored the fourth-fewest runs in baseball (34) over their last ten contests.
Keller hasn’t been good at all recently, but the same is true of this banged up Mariners offense. On the other hand, Pittsburgh continues to rake (especially at home). An inconsistent arm in Kirby could get into trouble against a deep, dangerous Pirates lineup that generates quality contact. Back the Buccos at plus money tonight.
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