Charlie Cummings previews Thursday’s WNBA matchup between the New York Liberty and the Portland Fire and provides his best pick.
I love a game with different motivations at play. After an injury-riddled title defense in 2025, the New York Liberty are looking to get back into the contender’s circle following a massive offseason. The Portland Fire, one of our two expansion franchises, is trying to set the tone for its WNBA debut season. This one is going to be fun.
Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET. The Liberty are 11.5-point home favorites with -650 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Fire upset is priced at +470, with the game total set at O/U 176.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Liberty-Fire game.
The absences of Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally loom large over the Liberty. It’s bad enough to miss your top offseason acquisition, but your lead offensive initiator as well makes things difficult. Yet the offense continues to hum along under the steady watch of Breanna Stewart, one of the most gifted scorers in the league. The defensive base set by Jonquel Jones has been crucial, but it’s the superb play of Marine Johannes that’s making the difference. Typically a bench guard, Johannes has admirably stepped into Ionescu’s shoes, averaging 20 points per game while being lights-out from deep. Of course, she’s pulling her usual shenanigans.
But even Johannes couldn’t stop the Fire getting their goose in the first matchup.
Getting your first win in franchise history is always special. Doing it the way they did against the Liberty on Tuesday was something else.
Portland went hard for Bridget Carleton in the expansion draft, and she rewarded their faith with 26 efficient points against the Liberty. They also got an excellent performance out of Carla Leite, who racked up 21 points, six assists, and four rebounds. The Fire feel aptly named so far; it’s not the most talented team in the league, but they play with palpable competitive spirit.
Two offenses, both cooking with gas, are facing off again. Who’s coming out on top?
When fully healthy, this Liberty team is going to be a wagon and would blow the doors off this Fire team. But they are vulnerable with half of their All-Stars sidelined, and the lack of depth is being exposed. Portland’s diverse offensive attack will find a way to keep this one close.
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