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The last time the Buffalo Sabres won a series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the world was an entirely different place. The original iPhone had been announced, but wouldn’t yet be released for another couple of months. “Irreplaceable” by Beyonce was the year’s top-charting song. MySpace was replaced by Facebook as the most popular social media platform. The year was 2007, for those trying to guess at home, and Buffalo defeated both of the other New York franchises en route to an appearance in the Eastern Conference Final.
Today, the Sabres have the chance to win their first series in nearly two decades. Standing in their way are the Boston Bruins, who are reeling after a 6-1 blowout loss on their own home ice last time out. Will Buffalo vanquish some of its demons and give its fanbase something else to celebrate, or will Boston stave off elimination here?
Here’s a Bruins vs. Sabres Game 5 prediction and pick for Tuesday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This could’ve been a 2-2 series had Boston simply hung on to its multi-goal lead in Game 1, but that collapse may have doomed the group in hindsight. With Buffalo up 3-1 in the best-of-seven, the Sabres have their opponent on the brink as things head back to New York tonight. The chance to bounce the Bruins in front of the faithful in blue and yellow has to be appealing, to say the least.
For the vast majority of this series, the Sabres have looked like the better team. After all, they are. The comeback in Game 1 was one for the ages, and after dropping Game 2, Buffalo has now outscored its foe 9-2 over the last 120 minutes of hockey in Games 3 and 4. Getting Boston netminder Jeremy Swayman sent to the bench in favor of Joonas Korpisalo in the last matchup only added fuel to the fire, further discombobulating a Bruins side in desperate need of any kind of spark it can find.
With 3.75 goals and 34.5 shots per game, you’d think that everything has clicked into place for Buffalo. The even-strength approach has been unreal, but as it turns out, the Sabres are notably absent in a key area. They’re yet to notch a single power-play goal in a staggering 17 chances. With that in mind, it’s shocking to see how dominant they’ve been in terms of scoring this series with a 15-9 advantage in that regard. Across all situations, they’ve simply been better at getting high and medium-danger scoring chances while forcing Boston into taking lower-danger shots. They’ve held the Bruins’ attack to just 24.0 total shots on goal per game, also largely neutralizing a power play that ranked ninth in the regular season with an 84.6% PK%. It’s been a recipe for success for Buffalo, especially with Alex Lyon at an incredible .964 SV% and 0.90 GAA since the coaching staff made the switch in net.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Sabres as -170 favorites to win at home on the Moneyline tonight, while the Bruins come in with +142 odds on the road. The game total sits at 5.5 combined goals.
Betting splits show 73% of straight bets on Buffalo to win, 62% of wagers on the Sabres to cover the -1.5 puck line, and 78% on the total’s over.
If the Sabres offense keeps playing this way and Lyon continues to stand on his head in the crease, the Bruins’ season should come to an end tonight. The netminder managed a .907 SV% in the regular season and has a career .914 mark over the course of seven career postseason games, so as long as the blue line in front of him continues to limit shots, he should be positioned nicely for a strong performance. Boston has plenty of talent in terms of skaters, but its goalie situation looks rather rough between this mini-slump from Swayman and a rough season from Korpisalo (3.15 GAA/.894 SV%). Whichever one of them starts, they’ll face a ton of shots and will absolutely need more support from the offense to hang around with this Sabres attack. If Buffalo gets going on the power play, it’s as good as over.
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