The Rangers and Diamondbacks play the first game of their three-game series on Monday, May 11.

Texas is a -131 moneyline favorite, while Arizona is +109 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 7.5 runs.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Rangers vs. Diamondbacks game.

Rangers vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview

Nathan Eovaldi has been his best self over his past two starts, both of which were against the Yankees. Does he just have New York’s number, or is this signaling a turnaround? The veteran right-hander struggled to start the season, allowing at least five earned runs in three of his first six starts.

His 4.15 ERA isn’t popping off the page, but he’s allowed just one earned run and seven hits across his last 15.0 innings pitched. He’s also struck out 15 batters and walked one during this stretch. Will he maintain this level of dominance against the Diamondbacks?

Arizona ranks 14th in runs per game and is 19th in team batting average. This is a mediocre offense that’s been quiet over the past five games. The Diamondbacks have scored five, two, one, two and zero runs in their last five games, all of which were at home (a hitter-friendly ballpark).

Meanwhile, Texas has one of the most pitcher-friendly parks, ranking 28th out of 29 teams in terms of Statcast’s Park Factor. This doesn’t mean Eovaldi is exempt from a potential disaster, as he’s allowed six earned runs to the Athletics at home. It does, however, indicate that this game has a good chance of being low-scoring.

Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Pick, Best Bet

Much of this game relies on how Eovaldi performs. His early-season inconsistency is daunting, but he held a 1.73 ERA across 130.0 innings last year. He also hasn’t had an ERA worse than 4.00 since 2019.

Between Park Factor and recent play, I believe the Diamondbacks will have trouble scoring. Rather than pick a side, I’m taking the under at 7.5 runs. Texas is also one of the worst teams in the league with runs per game at 3.73 (ranked 28th).

Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs (-110)