The World Cup expanded from 32 to 48 teams for the 2026 edition of the tournament. In some ways, that has eliminated the “group of death.” That was a term used to describe the toughest group at the World Cup. With only 32 teams, there was often a team that was more of a powerhouse that had to qualify through a playoff, or had a standout team despite being from a region that wasn’t typically at an elite level. That would often lead to one disproportionately tough group at each World Cup, known as the group of death.

With 48 teams, there are now 12 groups instead of just eight. That means the teams ranked 9-12 are now the best teams in their respective groups, rather than being the second-best team in a group. That has a ripple effect that goes all the way down to the very bottom of the pool of nations competing at the World Cup. Despite all of that change, there is one group at the 2026 World Cup that will be a battle to make it out of, Group I.

World Cup Group of Death: Group I

Group I, from an objective standpoint, is the best group at the World Cup. Using FIFA rankings, the average ranking of the four teams in the group is 25.75, the best of any group. The top team in the group is France. France has been the powerhouse in world football over the past decade. It won the 2018 World Cup and made it back to the final at the 2022 World Cup. France is the top-ranked team in the world heading into the tournament and has the joint-best odds to win the World Cup on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Having the best team in the tournament certainly helps boost the standing of your group, but Senegal and Norway are both really tough teams to beat as well. Senegal is the No. 14 team in the FIFA rankings and the second-highest-ranked African team. Senegal made it out of its group at the 2022 World Cup, the second time the nation has done that this century. Experienced players on this team, like Sadio Mane and Edouard Mendy, were key figures on that 2022 team and have experience at the World Cup.

When it comes to Norway, there is a single player who can change the entire group. The Norwegian striker Erling Haaland is arguably the best goal-scorer in the world. Norway is just the 31st-ranked team in the world, but if Haaland is at the top of his game, Norway can beat anyone in the tournament in a single match.

At the bottom of the group, there is Iraq. Iraq is the 57th-ranked team in the latest FIFA rankings. This is just Iraq’s second-ever trip to the World Cup, having last made it all the way back in 1986. Iraq was the final team to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, defeating Bolivia in an intercontinental playoff match. While Iraq was the last team to qualify, there are nine teams ranked worse in this World Cup field. So while it is massive longshots to get out of the group, it is by no means one of the worst teams in the tournament.

Who will win Group I at the 2026 World Cup?

At the 2026 World Cup, there will be 32 teams that advance to the knockout round. The top two teams from each group will advance as always, as will the eighth-best third-place teams. For Group I, three teams are favored to make it to the knockout round.

France is -230 to win the group, followed by Norway at +275, Senegal at +750 and Iraq as +5000 longshots. France is almost guaranteed to make it out of the group at -5000. Norway is also heavily favored to make the knockout round at -900. Senegal is -230 to make it out of the group, despite having the third-best odds. Meanwhile, Iraq is +450 to make it out of the group. While it is the clear fourth-best team in the group, those odds say it has a chance to make it out of the group of death.

France is a deserving favorite, as it is the best team in the tournament. However, it could be worth a bet on Norway at +275. This is such a competitive group that anybody could take points off of anybody, except maybe Iraq against France. The group could easily come down to goal differential, and with Erling Haaland leading the front line for Norway, it could be the team that explodes for a few goals in one game.