When they launched a second-half comeback to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder in the semifinals of the Emirates NBA Cup, the San Antonio Spurs announced their arrival on the big stage. Now, some five months later, both teams are here, ready to do battle with the highest of stakes (a trip to the NBA Finals) on the line.

The much-anticipated series will begin at 8:40 p.m. ET tonight with Game 1 in Oklahoma City. San Antonio won the regular-season series, 4-1, but the teams split the two games played at Paycom Center.

The Thunder are 6.5-point favorites for tonight’s contest at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 220.5. Oklahoma City is -245 on the Moneyline, and the Spurs are +200.

DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the series opener, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two UTIL picks, and one fade. Let’s dive in:

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Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $400K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (SAS @ OKC).

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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($16,500 CP) – Just like the MVP race, this one will come down to Gilgeous-Alexander versus Victor Wembanyama ($18,000 CP), and while it feels strange keeping Wembanyama out of the lineup entirely, Gilgeous-Alexander is the slightly safer bet. Because of his rebounding and shot-blocking prowess, Wembanyama is capable of monstrous performances — such as a 39-point, 15-rebound, five-block (72.2-FPT) effort in Game 3 against the Minnesota Timberwolves — that Gilgeous-Alexander can’t match, but he’s less consistent as a scorer, scoring fewer than 20 points in six of his 10 playoff games (though he left two of those games early as a result of either injury or ejection). Gilgeous-Alexander also has a much larger playmaking responsibility than Wembanyama does.

Gilgeous-Alexander had a tough time in the regular season against Stephon Castle ($12,300), who held him to just six-for-19 shooting, the second-worst efficiency that Gilgeous-Alexander posted against any defender to guard him for at least 30 partial possessions. However, 24 points and 12 assists is still solid production, and it’s not like Castle will be able to shadow him the entire game. In the four matchups in which he played, Gilgeous-Alexander still averaged 29.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game, far better averages than Wembanyama’s 18.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game, though the Frenchman was on a minutes restriction for each of the first three matchups. San Antonio’s raw defensive numbers have been better than the Thunder’s so far these playoffs, but Oklahoma City has fewer glaring mismatches.

Stephon Castle ($12,300 CP) – Despite the fact that he’ll expend much of his energy on defense chasing Gilgeous-Alexander, the Spurs’ other former Rookie of the Year is a viable captain option. He’s a certified playoff riser, carrying San Antonio to a critical Game 3 win against the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round with Wembanyama sidelined (33 points, 44.5 FPTS). More recently, he was the best player on the floor in the Spurs’ closeout Game 6 against Minnesota, recording 32 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists (57.8 FPTS) while hitting five of his seven three-pointers. The Thunder are dominant inside, making them occasionally vulnerable to opposing three-point shooters, and Castle, who was inaccurate in college and in his first season and a half in the NBA, has made more than 40% of his triples since the start of February.

I’m not sure Mark Daigneault has the right defensive strategies against Castle. He has plenty of elite guard stoppers on his roster — for instance, Cason Wallace ($7,200 CP) held Austin Reaves and Devin Booker to a combined 31 points on 12-for-30 shooting across 168.3 partial possessions in the first two rounds — but during the regular season, he opted to guard Castle with Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams ($12,600 CP). Castle was effective against both, scoring 13 points on four-for-five shooting against Williams and 16 points on six-for-10 accuracy against Gilgeous-Alexander. Oklahoma City is wont to give up lots of corner threes, and so far these playoffs, he’s been a solid 38.5% corner shooter.

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UTIL Plays

Ajay Mitchell ($8,000) – Mitchell had a tremendous second-round series against the Los Angeles Lakers, scoring 20 or more points in each of Games 2, 3, and 4 while making more than half of his shots in each of those three games. Additionally, because the Belgian made a huge defensive impact in each of Games 3 and 4, he’s also coming off of back-to-back 45-plus-FPT performances, marking the fifth time in his last seven games that he’s topped his regular season average of 27.1 FPTS per game. Mitchell could see a slight dip in usage rate now that Williams could re-enter the starting lineup ahead of him, but his impact is well-rounded enough that he should continue to play a pivotal role.

In fact, if Mitchell does come off the bench for Williams, he could have a greater impact, given that he’ll spend fewer minutes going up against Wembanyama and the rest of the Spurs’ starters. San Antonio was 9.7 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with Wembanyama off the court during the regular season and has been 8.6 points per 100 possessions worse so far these playoffs. That discrepancy could be even more extreme if Wembanyama’s backup, Luke Kornet ($3,000), ends up being sidelined with the foot soreness that has him listed as questionable for tonight’s contest. During the regular season, Mitchell was also relatively effective offensively against Spurs backup point guard Dylan Harper ($6,400) while getting the best of Harper on the other side of the ball as well.

Julian Champagnie ($5,400) – Oklahoma City can be thwarted by elite shooters, and that’s exactly what Champagnie is. He shot 38.1% from beyod the arc during the regular season and is at 45.2% so far these playoffs. More specifically, Champagnie made 40.1% of his corner threes during the regular season, taking advantage of the Thunder’s penchant to allow such shots and San Antonio’s incredible ability to generate them via Wembanyama’s gravity. Relatedly, Oklahoma City also allowed among the most catch-and-shoot threes in the league in both the regular season and the playoffs, and Champagnie’s accuracy on such shots has risen to nearly 50% so far these playoffs.

To be fair, Champagnie performed poorly in each of the first three games against the Thunder during the regular season, combining for just seven points, but at that point, he hadn’t yet earned a full-time starting role. He started in the January 13 loss and had a solid performance, recording 13 points and six rebounds. He’s also stepped up big in other games against big teams, hitting a franchise-record 11 three-pointers in a New Year’s Eve win over a potential Finals opponent in the New York Knicks. His matchup isn’t the worst; during the regular season, Daigneault guarded him predominantly with Gilgeous-Alexander, who ranked below the league median in total contests per 100 possessions for the second consecutive regular season.

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Fades

Chet Holmgren ($9,000) – Holmgren is coming off of his best series in his postseason career, finishing with 20.0 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks (40.6 FPTS) per game in the sweep against the Los Angeles Lakers. In that series, he shot 60.8% from the field overall, including 95.7% from the restricted area, the highest at-rim accuracy among players to average at least three close-range tries per game. While Holmgren was able to finesse his way around Deandre Ayton’s contests, that’s simply not going to happen against Wembanyama, who’s limited opponents to just 45.9% shooting within six feet of the basket so far these playoffs. Holmgren’s offensive numbers when guarded by Wembanyama during the regular season were downright spooky, as he scored just four points on one-for-seven shooting in 39.8 partial possessions, and San Antonio’s star seems to crave their matchup. Holmgren is a savvy player and will figure it out eventually, but challenging the league’s best defensive player isn’t a recipe for success.

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THE OUTCOME

The Thunder were better during the regular season by two games, were even better at protecting the paint than the Spurs during the regular season, and have home-court advantage. They also have been the far more impressive offense so far these playoffs despite Gilgeous-Alexander’s slow series against the Lakers, posting a league-best 126.3 offensive rating through the first two playoff series. Wembanyama and Castle can be trusted during the postseason, but San Antonio’s lack of experience, especially among its depth pieces, could matter. Sixth Man of the Year Keldon Johnson ($4,400) has had an extremely poor playoffs, a Game 5 explosion against the Timberwolves notwithstanding.

This game should be close, though. While Oklahoma City has been a much better rebounding team so far these playoffs than it was in the regular season, the Spurs have still been better on the glass, and they play relatively mistake-free basketball, limiting the Thunder’s edge in transition. Plus, for all the griping about Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to exaggerate contact, San Antonio has attempted nearly five more free throws per game so far these playoffs. The Spurs have the more talented raw shooters, depending on how selective Wembanyama is with his looks and how many minutes Jared McCain ($2,800) ends up playing for Oklahoma City.

In the end, I’ll take the Thunder, despite the results of the regular season series. I just haven’t seen quite enough from Fox and Johnson to trust that they can properly fulfill their roles against Oklahoma City’s juggernaut, but I wouldn’t be surprised if San Antonio has a last-second look for the win.

Final Score: Thunder 115, Spurs 113