Tipping off as part of tonight’s three-game WNBA slate, the Washington Mystics will challenge the New York Liberty. This is the third matchup between these two sides already this season. The Liberty have picked up victories in each of the first two matchups, and this will be their final game of the regular season.

Looking at the odds for tonight, the Liberty enter as 12.5-point favorites and hold -850 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mystics hold +575 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 167.5 points.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Mystics at Liberty matchup.

Mystics at Liberty Preview

The Washington Mystics enter with a 6-7 record to start the season. They are coming off a victory over the Connecticut Sun in the previous game, but have not won consecutive games all year. On the season overall, Washington has gone 7-6 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in eight of their 13 games played.

Sonia Citron headlines the production for the Mystics, posting averages of 17.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. Kiki Iriafen adds 14.6 points and 8.9 rebounds per game, while Shakira Austin pitches in 14.5 points and 8.3 rebounds per game to provide balance in the front court. Austin is considered questionable for tonight’s matchup due to knee soreness. Cotie McMahon, Georgia Amoore and Michaela Onyenwere also play key roles.

Washington is scoring 81.9 points per game, which ranks 12th in the WNBA. The Mystics also rank 12th in offensive rating, eighth in field goal percentage, and 14th in three-point percentage while attempting the second-fewest three-pointers in the league. Defensively, opponents are scoring 86.2 points per game against Washington, which ranks seventh in the league. They also rank 10th in defensive rating, seventh in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 12th in opponents’ three-point percentage.

The New York Liberty enters with an 11-4 start to the season. After a bit of a rough start to the year following a hectic offseason, New York has found their footing and enters this matchup on an eight-game winning streak. The Liberty have gone 8-7 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in eight of the 15 games played.

Breanna Stewart headlines the production, posting averages of 19.7 points and 8.8 rebounds. Jonquel Jones adds 14.2 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, while Marine Johannes, Pauline Astier, and Satau Sabally each also average in double figures. It has been a tough start to the season for Sabrina Ionescu, who has suited up for just three games this season and posted measly averages of 8.7 points, 3.7 assists, and 3.7 rebounds, well below her sky-high standard. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton is the lone player listed on the injury report and is considered questionable due to a left knee issue.

As a team, the Liberty is scoring 88.9 points per game, which is the fourth-best rate in the league. They also rank second in offensive rating, third in field goal percentage, and third in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 82.3 points per game against New York, which ranks fourth in the league. The Liberty also ranks fourth in defensive rating, fourth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and sixth in opponents’ three-point percentage.

Mystics at Liberty Pick, Best Bet

These teams first faced off on May 10th, which resulted in a 98-93 overtime win by the Liberty. Washington won the rebounding battle and outscored New York in the paint, but the Mystics shot just 5-for-26 (19%) from beyond the three-point arc and left nine points on the table at the free-throw line. The Liberty held a lead for 64% of the matchups.

The second matchup between these two teams occurred on Sunday, which resulted in a much more convincing Liberty win. New York cruised to an 86-64 victory, holding a lead for 85% of the matchup. The 64 points that Washington was limited to are the fewest they have scored in any game this season, and New York was largely able to keep them at an arm’s length for the duration of the matchup.

These results are directly indicative of the level of play that has been seen by the Liberty this season. It was a busy offseason, and the team had some early struggles that caused them to get out to a 3-4 start to the year. They have ripped off an eight-game winning streak since, including covering the spread in six of these matchups and winning four of these by double digits.

There are some reasons for optimism for this Mystics team overall. But only one of their six games has come against teams with a winning record. Their scoring issues feel a bit more pronounced than their defensive concerns, but neither side of the ball grades favorably. Washington ranks 12th in the league in scoring, 12th in offensive rating, seventh in opponents’ points allowed, and 10th in defensive rating. 

For the Mystics to have a true chance in this game, it will take some self-inflicted issues from this Liberty team. But New York has looked unstoppable of late, including in this exact matchup. It feels they have turned a page from the early season struggles they showed, and still have room to grow as Sabrina Ionescu continues to find her form now that she is healthy. The Liberty cruised to a 22-point victory over the Mystics less than a week ago without much resistance. With the same home crowd behind them and even more momentum on their side, I am backing New York to replicate this performance and put another convincing result in the win column. Don’t be shocked if this game gets out of control early and back the Liberty to continue asserting themselves as a legitimate WNBA championship threat once again.

Best Bet: New York Liberty -12.5 (-115)