Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Thursday’s MLB game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals.
An I-70 series showdown is on tap this evening at Kauffman Stadium. The Cardinals (40-32) have been an early season surprise. Still, as we near the season’s halfway point, St. Louis is firmly in contention for a playoff spot. It’s a different story for the Royals (30-45), one of the American League’s worst clubs. Can Kansas City turn it around this weekend against its interleague rivals?
The Royals are favorites (-115) over the Cardinals, with the over/under set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s matchup between St. Louis and Kansas City on DraftKings Sportsbook.
St. Louis will hand the ball to Matthew Liberatore. The soft-tossing lefty isn’t the most inspiring pitcher. Through 70.2 innings, he’s recorded a 4.71 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 65 strikeouts (8.3 K/9). A look under the hood paints a far bleaker picture. The 26-year-old sits within the 20th percentile or worse in xERA (5.44), xBA (.285), average exit velocity (91.5 MPH), barrel rate (10.2%) and hard-hit rate (44.7%). To make matters worse, Liberatore has delivered a 1.8 HR/9 ratio, tied for fourth-worst in baseball.
On the bright side for the visitors, this isn’t the most daunting opponent. The Royals are averaging just 4.01 runs per game, fifth-lowest in the majors. Among Kansas City players with over 100 plate appearances, only Bobby Witt Jr. (123 wRC+) and Jac Caglianone (113 wRC+) have a wRC+ above 100. Injuries to key hitters Maikel Garcia (hand) and Vinnie Pasquantino (hand) have only made this lineup weaker. To boot, KC has the ninth-lowest OPS against left-handed pitching (.683). It’s not an exaggeration to call this a two-man offense at the moment. Still, the Royals do average more runs at home (4.42) than on the road (3.59).
It’ll take a solid showing from Noah Cameron to keep the Royals in this one. To be fair, that’s not an unreasonable proposition. Through 70.0 innings (14 starts) this season, he’s posted a 4.11 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 64 strikeouts (8.2 K/9). He comes into this one with a bit of momentum as well, having allowed two runs or fewer in four of his previous five appearances. It’s worth noting that some of those games came against quality lineups such as the Astros, Mariners and Yankees. In comparison, St. Louis’ league-average scoring attack isn’t as intimidating.
Cameron’s most-used off-speed pitch is the changeup, which he’s thrown 22% of the time this season. Against that offering, Cardinals hitters have recorded a feeble .227/.259/.341 slash line. It’s fair to call this St. Louis lineup top-heavy. The quartet of Jordan Walker (144 wRC+), Ivan Herrera (135 wRC+), Alec Burleson (132 wRC+) and JJ Wetherholt (118 wRC+) can rake. Outside of those four, there isn’t much for opposing pitchers to worry about. Over three career meetings with the Cardinals, Cameron has accounted for a minuscule 1.96 ERA.
Liberatore doesn’t inspire much confidence, even against a last place club. Kansas City is a more potent offense at home, and the lefty doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt. As for Cameron, he’s a proven performer against a somewhat thin Cardinals lineup. Equipped with a superior pitcher, the Royals have an advantage tonight.
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