Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Tuesday’s MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers.
World Series contenders are set to clash this evening in Chavez Ravine. The Rays (41-28) are a surprise, hanging around in the wide-open American League. Still, Tampa Bay has plenty to prove between now and October. The Dodgers (46-27) are, well, the Dodgers. Two time defending champions tend to make for difficult opponents. Look no further than Los Angeles’ 4-3, series-opening win on Monday. Can the visitors even things up tonight in SoCal?
The Dodgers are favorites (-149) over the Rays, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s interleague showdown between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The strength of this Tampa Bay squad is, to the shock of no one, pitching. Drew Rasmussen has a claim as the most underrated starter in all of baseball. The former All-Star, when healthy, is a legitimate top of the rotation arm. Through 73.0 innings this season, he’s recorded a 2.71 ERA, 77 strikeouts (9.5 K/9) and an American League-leading 0.88 WHIP. The veteran also paces the Junior Circuit with a minuscule 6.3 hits per nine innings ratio. Rasmussen also ranks within the 90th percentile in average exit velocity (86.6 MPH) and walk rate (4.6%).
Even for a lineup as talented as Los Angeles’, runs could be difficult to come by tonight. Regardless, the defending champions aren’t intimidated by anyone. They’re second in runs scored (390), second in home runs (101) and first in OPS (.787) this season. The absence of Teoscar Hernandez (hamstring) hurts, but it’s not a major blow by any means. Rasmussen throws three different variations of a fastball: the cutter (33%), four-seamer (27%) and sinker (22%). Against those three offerings, the Dodgers have put up a .283/.373/.492 slash line. Still, this won’t be a walk in the park. Rasmussen has delivered quality starts against elite lineups such as the Brewers and Yankees.
On an LA squad overflowing with star power, Justin Wrobleski isn’t a household name. Don’t let the southpaw’s low profile fool you; he’s proven to be a difference maker. Over 73.1 innings of work (11 starts), the 25-year-old has a 2.95 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 45 strikeouts (5.5 K/9). What Wrobleski lacks in whiffs, he makes up for with superior command and weak contact. The third-year pro has produced terrific 2.0 BB/9 and 0.7 HR/9 ratios. He’s allowed more than three earned runs in just three of his 12 appearances so far.
A glance at Wrobleski’s Savant page might not impress. The only category that he ranks inside the 50th percentile in is walk rate (5.4%). However, it’s not as if the youngster’s opponents are too impressive either. Tampa Bay’s offense is last in barrel rate (5.4%), hard-hit rate (34.3%), xSLG (.366) and xwOBAcon (.334). Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda carry this lineup. Outside of those three, Ryan Vilade is the only Rays regular with a wRC+ above 100 this season. Tampa Bay has a .688 OPS vs. left-handed pitching, tenth-lowest in baseball.
The Dodgers are a juggernaut, looking more than capable of a three-peat. With that being said, Rasmussen is one of the sport’s best hurlers. At the very least, he should keep things from getting out of hand. On the other side, Tampa Bay has struggled when it comes to left-handed pitchers. Wrobleski may not punch out many batters, but he rarely beats himself with walks and home runs allowed. A top-heavy Rays offense doesn’t look too intimidating on paper.
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