Zach Thompson details his best player prop bets for Monday’s NBA playoff matchup between the Timberwolves and the Spurs.
The second round of the NBA Playoffs tips off on Monday night, and in the second game of the doubleheader, the San Antonio Spurs host the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Spurs eliminated the Trail Blazers in five games in Round 1, while the Timberwolves took care of the Nuggets in six games, even though they lost Donte DiVincenzo and Anthony Edwards to injury along the way. The second round will be a great matchup between these two squads, so let’s take a look at a few of the best player prop bets from this Game 1 matchup between the Wolves and the Spurs, tipping off at 9:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN/Peacock.
The Spurs are heavy 11.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total at O/U 218.5 points. In the futures market, the Spurs are +390 to win the NBA Finals, the second-shortest odds of any team remaining, behind only the Thunder. The Timberwolves are +10000, the longest odds of the eight remaining teams. In this series, the Spurs are -525 favorites to advance.
The big injury news is that Edwards is questionable and has been cleared to participate in on-court activities, but it still seems like a long shot that he’ll play, since previous reports had his return likely in the middle of the series. ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that Edwards was a “significant participant in Timberwolves shootaround,” though, so there’s definitely a chance he plays even if he’s not 100%. Ayo Dosunmu (calf), who was outstanding while stepping in for Edwards, is also questionable after missing Game 6. The Spurs listed Carter Bryant as questionable, but they are otherwise at full strength.
Which Timberwolves-Spurs player prop bets make sense this Monday? Let’s take a look!
Let’s start with a nice PRA (points, rebounds and assists) play from the Spurs, taking Vassell to get at least 20 PRA. During his 73 games since the start of the regular season, Vassell has averaged 20.4 PRA per game on 13.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists.
In the five games in Round 1, he averaged 34 minutes per game, up from 31 minutes during the regular season. Vassell averaged 4.1 rebounds per game in the regular season, but he has been more active in the playoffs as the Spurs tightened up their rotation.
Vassell played 34 minutes per game in the five games in Round 1 and averaged 12.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game for 20.8 PRA. He had at least 20 PRA in each of the first four games of the series, before finishing with 13 PRA in his most recent contest.
The only time Vassell faced the Wolves this regular season, he had 22 points, a rebound and three assists to go over this prop line in that matchup as well. While he isn’t the flashiest option on the Spurs’ roster, Vassell has a very attainable PRA line if he gets as much work as he did in Round 1.
Reid had a slow finish to the season, but he helped pick up the slack with Edwards and DiVincenzo going down.
He had at least 18 points plus rebounds in each of the last three games in the series against the Nuggets and in six of his last eight games overall. He played at least 24 minutes in four of his last five games, with a series-high 34 minutes in Game 6, finishing with 15 points and seven rebounds.
If Edwards, Dosunmu or both are out, Reid will again have to pick up more work. He had 20 and 28 points plus rebounds in his two regular-season games against the Spurs before leaving the third matchup after just five minutes with an injury.
If Dosunmu and Edwards are at full strength, this isn’t nearly as easy for him to do, but he’s a streaky contributor with a high enough ceiling to consider at this level, and his ceiling jumps even higher if his role increases.
The Sixth Man of the Year didn’t earn his award primarily for his work on the glass, but he did average 5.3 rebounds per game during the regular season. He didn’t score as many points as he typically does in Round 1, but his rebound numbers were strong, with at least four rebounds in four of the five games in the series.
Johnson had eight boards in his first matchup against Minnesota this season, but he only had two rebounds and one rebound in their most recent matchups.
His real value is from his versatility and energy off the bench, and in his current role, he will likely need to be active enough to get four rebounds, especially if the rotations tilt a little smaller across the board.
If you’re building an SGP (Same Game Parlay) for Game 1, adding in the over on Gobert’s assists and rebounds boosts the odds up to a strong +1100 for the four Timberwolves-Spurs bets in this post.
Gobert had 13 rebounds and eight assists in Game 6 to close out Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. He had at least 15 rebounds plus assists in three of his last four games and in five of his last nine. During the regular season, he had 10 and 17 in his two matchups with the Spurs, but the veteran big man will take on a large workload since he’ll have to try to slow down Victor Wembanyama. The Wolves’ shooting and scoring is hard to solve with Dosunmu and Edwards uncertain, but Gobert is a consistent contributor of non-scoring numbers like these, making him a nice way to bump this SPG up over 10:1.
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