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Looking for the best MLB prop bets today? We’ve got a few strong MLB props to target on the June 22 slate, including a team total, hitter prop, and strikeout prop. The Cardinals are in a great position against Merrill Kelly and his struggles against left-handed hitters, Paul Goldschmidt gets a favorable matchup against Framber Valdez, and Drew Rasmussen draws a weakened Royals lineup missing its biggest bat. Let’s break down the best MLB prop bets today.
Today’s Best MLB Prop Bets: Cardinals team total over 4.5 runs, Paul Goldschmidt 2+ total bases, and Drew Rasmussen over 5.5 strikeouts.
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Let’s break down the top MLB prop bets and picks for today. Click on each headline below to view the latest odds and bet these plays on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Odds: -105 | Opponent: New York Mets
Merrill Kelly is taking the mound for the Diamondbacks tonight, and boy has it been an adventure. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed 15 runs on 21 hits, including five home runs, through 16.1 innings. Overall for the season, Kelly has a 5.81 ERA with an xERA of 7.48 and a 5.99 FIP. Opposing hitters are making a lot more contact, as his K/9 is currently the lowest of his career at 5.4. When they are making contact, opposing hitters are generating a 43% fly ball rate, which is currently the highest of his career. While both sides of the plate are hitting him hard, lefties in particular have been the real sore spot. They’ve tagged him for a .400 wOBA with a 7.22 FIP and 10 of the 15 home runs he’s allowed. The Cardinals should have at least five in the lineup tonight.
Odds: +103 | Opponent: Tigers
If I’m going to get plus money on 2+ bases when Goldschmidt it facing a lefty, I’m taking it every time. He’s ranked within the top five hitters in the league (minimum 50 plate appearances) in average, OBP, SLG, wOBA, and wRC+. Tonight, he’ll face Framber Valdez, who has really struggled at home this season. Through 31 innings, Valdez has a .344 wOBA with a 5.72 FIP. At home against righties specifically, Valdez has a .361 wOBA with a 6.32 FIP. Getting this prop at +103 is the cherry on top.
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Odds: -120 | Opponent: Kansas City Royals
Rasmussen is an extremely underrated starter. Through 14 starts and 80 innings this season, he’s posted a 2.59 ERA with a 2.94 FIP and a 9.4 K/9. He does an excellent job of missing bats, generating a swing-and-miss rate of 11%, which is up from last season at 9.5%. Tonight, he draws a favorable matchup to generate strikeouts against the Royals. This lineup looks awfully weak without Bobby Witt Jr, who is out with an MCL sprain. Because of that, tonight’s expected lineup has extremely poor numbers against righties with a .283 wOBA, a .120 ISO and a 19.5% K% against righties. I was expecting Rasmussen’s K prop to be 6.5, I was pleasantly surprised to see this number open at 5.5, even if it’s juiced up a bit to -120.
Check out more MLB betting content and player props throughout the season on DraftKings Network.
Good luck with your MLB prop bets today!
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