Arizona arrives at Oracle Park with the cleanest form in the National League West outside the division’s obvious heavyweight. The Diamondbacks are 30-24, winners of nine of their last 10, and they have already taken the first two games in San Francisco by 6-2 and 7-5. The Giants are sliding the other way at 26-29, with six losses in their last eight games, but this is not a dead lineup waiting for a sweep to happen. Tuesday’s box score told the whole tension of this matchup: Arizona kept stacking timely damage, San Francisco answered with three homers and nine hits, and the game still finished with the Diamondbacks needing Paul Sewald to close a two-run margin. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the San Francisco Giants and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview

Michael Soroka gives Arizona the cleaner starter profile. He enters at 6-2 with a 3.27 ERA, 57 strikeouts, a 1.25 WHIP, a 24.5% strikeout rate, a 6.0% walk rate, 0.65 HR/9, a 2.93 FIP and a 3.34 xFIP, the kind of command-and-miss combination that usually travels well in a cool park. The contact layer keeps the door open: Soroka has allowed an 88.8 mph average exit velocity, a 36.1% hard-hit rate, an 8.9% barrel rate and a .331 expected wOBA. Trevor McDonald has the rougher surface line at 2-1 with a 4.76 ERA, but the internals explain why Arizona’s run-line and team-total prices require restraint. McDonald owns a 4.3% walk rate, 0.79 HR/9, a 3.43 FIP, a 2.90 xFIP and a 62.5% ground-ball rate. The concern for San Francisco is quality of contact: 90.9 mph average exit velocity, 44.6% hard-hit rate and a .371 expected wOBA on contact.

The Diamondbacks have enough current offensive form to pressure McDonald early, especially with Ketel Marte turning every at-bat into a problem. Marte has been on a heater with 21 hits in 37 at-bats, three homers and 15 RBI across his current surge, and he homered again Tuesday. Corbin Carroll still gives Arizona left-handed speed and pull-side lift at the top of the order, Geraldo Perdomo has helped lengthen innings with contact and switch-hit traffic, Gabriel Moreno homered Monday, and Adrian Del Castillo added another homer Tuesday. The catch is the larger righty-split baseline: Arizona has hit just .236 with a .689 OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season. The current version has been sharper, with a .277/.337/.427 slash, .764 OPS, 76 hits, 24 extra-base hits, seven homers and 40 RBI over its last 10 against righties, but McDonald’s low-walk ground-ball shape can turn hard contact into stranded singles instead of crooked innings.

San Francisco’s losing streak has hidden a lineup that is still making loud contact against right-handed pitching. Casey Schmitt is the obvious ignition point after six homers in his last 10 games, including another shot Tuesday, and he has piled up 16 hits, 13 RBI and nine runs during that stretch. Rafael Devers has been driving the ball as well, with a grand slam Sunday and a two-run double Monday, giving the Giants a real middle-order run-production threat even as the team record sags. Willy Adames homered in the ninth Tuesday, Matt Chapman still brings mistake-punishing power behind the heart of the order, and the recent split is legitimately strong: San Francisco has hit .270 with a .494 slugging percentage, .804 OPS, 71 hits, 33 extra-base hits, 12 homers and 38 RBI over its last 10 games against right-handed pitching. That matters against Soroka because he can win the start and still allow enough traffic for San Francisco to reach eight hits.

Diamondbacks vs. Giants pick, best bet

The market is pricing Arizona’s form correctly, and maybe a little too cleanly. The Diamondbacks are -136 on the full-game moneyline, +130 on the run line and +110 to lead after five innings, with their team total over 3.5 sitting at a taxed -135. Those numbers make the Arizona side playable only in the first-five market, where Soroka’s strikeout-to-walk edge and McDonald’s hard-contact risk are both captured at plus money. The sharper full-game angle is San Francisco’s team hits over 7.5 at -115. Oracle Park’s low-60s weather trims cheap carry, but it does not erase line drives, singles, doubles into the gap or a Giants lineup that out-hit Arizona 9-8 on Tuesday. San Francisco can cash this without winning, without forcing the total over and without needing Soroka to implode.

The best bet is Giants over 7.5 hits (-115), playable to just here. Arizona is the better team in better form, but this number isolates San Francisco’s current offensive strength against right-handed pitching instead of asking the Giants to finish the job on the scoreboard. Schmitt, Devers, Adames and Chapman give the middle of the order enough impact, and Soroka’s expected-contact profile leaves more traffic risk than his ERA suggests. The bet loses if McDonald puts Arizona ahead early and Soroka turns the game into a low-stress ground-ball clinic, but the Giants have enough recent bat speed and gap contact to keep pressure on the hit column.

Prediction: Diamondbacks 5, Giants 4.

Best bet: Giants over 7.5 hits (-115) vs. Diamondbacks

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