Charlie Cummings gives his best bet and prediction for the Uruguay vs. Cape Verde World Cup match on Sunday, June 21.
Best Bet: Uruguay Spread -1.5 (+145)
Cape Verde posted an all-time performance against Spain, pulling off one of the unlikeliest results in World Cup history by drawing the No. 1-ranked team in the country’s World Cup debut. But the magic can’t last forever. Uruguay’s attack has a lot of frustration to work off after drawing with Saudi Arabia and will come out firing to get a convincing win.
A result is all a matter of perspective. Despite having a point apiece, Uruguay and Cape Verde are on opposite ends of the emotional spectrum. Uruguay missed chance after chance against Saudi Arabia, ultimately settling for a draw as significant favorites. Cape Verde, in their World Cup debut, also managed a draw against Spain in one of the greatest upset results in history. Once again, Uruguay is the heavy favorite with Cape Verde as a significant underdog. Will history repeat itself?
It can’t be said that Uruguay lacked opportunities against Saudi Arabia. They possessed the ball for 67% of the game, generated 27 total shots (10 on target), and recorded 41 touches in their opponent’s box. Despite all that, it took until the 80th minute to find their first goal, and they had to settle for a draw.
Many of their main contributors need to improve. Darwin Núñez recorded only seven touches and fired his lone shot attempt a mile wide of the post, and was pulled at halftime. Manuel Ugarte was entirely too passive outside the box, generating very few progressive passes. Federico Valverde was better in progressive play but failed to convert any of his seven touches in the Saudi box into goals. Without Maxi Araújo’s goal, Uruguay would have had its back against the wall.
The good news for Uruguay is that the defense was sound in their first match. Aside from a terrible mistake by the goalkeeper, they handled counterattacks well and allowed only three shots on target. Another performance like that would deliver a clean sheet against this feeble Verdean attack.
What else can you say about Cape Verde’s tie with Spain? That 0-0 affair was a match for the ages. Vozinha, their 40-year-old goalkeeper, was the story of the match with seven saves in a clean sheet against the top-ranked side in the tournament. But it was a complete team effort, as they constantly dealt with pressure and left Spain frustrated.
The one regret for Cape Verde is that they couldn’t string together a perfect counterattack. Steven Moreira was perhaps their most threatening attacker, but he managed only one shot, and the team generated just six shots in total. With the game script likely to unfold in a similar direction, Moreira and his attacking cohorts will need to be more decisive and adventurous in their progressive play. You can’t draw every game 0-0.
Luckily for this team, they have a mental edge on defense. If they can hold Spain off the sheet, why can’t they do the same against Uruguay? I’m not as confident they can pull that off, but they surely have the belief. Vozinha can propel them to incredible things.
Prediction: The rubber band effect is real. Uruguay will be awfully frustrated with their recent performance, and Cape Verde’s luck can’t last forever. La Celeste will pull off a convincing win that places them squarely in the mix for a top-two spot in the group.
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