The Milwaukee Brewers are fresh off a three-game sweep of a division rival and now bring that momentum to Daikin Park for tonight’s matchup. They’re kicking off a three-game set against the Houston Astros, who have suddenly captured a little bit of momentum and are showing glimpses of righting the ship.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Brewers vs. Astros matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Brewers vs. Astros prediction, preview

Milwaukee Brewers

It’s been an awesome month for the Brewers, who are 17-6 in May with a .739 winning percentage in that sample. After going 7-3 over their last 10 contests, they’ve overtaken the rest of the NL Central for first place in the division and now boast a four-game lead on that spot. Their 4.89 runs per game are good for fifth in the sport even despite an average OPS of .696. The full slash line reads .246/.332/.364, but what that won’t tell you is that the Brew Crew are hitting .290 with RISP and have an MLB-best .511 SLG mark in such situations. That’s particularly surprising since they’re dead last in ISO at .118 and have an MLB-low 37 home runs, but the strategy of playing small ball and stealing bases (their 57 are second most) is clearly working, especially with an above-average 0.52 BB/K ratio. Milwaukee’s arms are also elite with a 3.14 ERA that ties for second best in the sport to complement a 1.19 WHIP and 16.9% K-BB%, the latter of which also ties for second best. It’s not just the starters fueling that, either. The bullpen has a 3.26 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and a 13.8% K-BB%.

Rookie RHP Coleman Crow makes his third MLB start for Milwaukee tonight. In two games, he’s tossed 10.1 innings with a 2.61 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and seven strikeouts. He doesn’t bring high velocity, but has generated an excellent chase rate and has limited hard hits so far. Obviously, the sample size remains very small at the pro level.

Houston Astros

All hope seemed lost for the Astros just a couple of weeks ago with an extensive IL and one of the MLB’s worst records. However, they’ve now won five of their last six games and are 7-3 across their last 10, improving to 26-32, just 2.5 games shy of the lead in a weak AL West. Houston produces 4.45 runs per game and ranks fifth in OPS at .732, slashing .245/.320/.412 as a team. A .166 ISO sits fifth as well while the team’s 76 homers are good for third most. In terms of plate process, the Stros are pretty pedestrian at an 0.42 BB/K ratio. An exciting offense has showed plenty of potential, but the arms have let the hitters down plenty this year. The Astros’ 5.05 ERA ranks second worst with a 1.46 WHIP and 9.0% K-BB%. The bullpen’s numbers are also the worst in baseball at a 5.39 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 7.7% K-BB%. Could things be slowly improving though? An overall 3.80 ERA and 1.24 WHIP for this staff in May are somewhat encouraging.

Houston’s starter tonight is RHP Kai-Wei Teng, who’s 3-3 across 17 total appearances and four starts. He’s racked up a 2.19 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 36 punchouts in 37 IP. With a deadly sweeper as his primary pitch, he’s rated in the 99th percentile in breaking run value and 84th percentile in total pitching run value.

Brewers vs. Astros pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as -125 Moneyline favorites on the road tonight. The Astros come in at +104 odds to win outright. The run total sits at 8.5 combined runs between these two teams.

Best Bet: Coleman Crow over 7.5 hits + walks + earned runs allowed (-130)

Perhaps this pick is something of a cop-out, but I like Coleman Crow to give up over 7.5 combined hits, walks, and earned runs. The rookie faced the Marlins and Twins in his first two MLB starts, going 5.0 and 5.1 innings in those two with seven and four as his totals on this prop. Yes, he’s now cashed this under twice, but neither of those lineups were quite as talented as Houston’s, at least generally speaking. While the Astros still have some injuries they’re dealing with, Yordan Alvarez is one of the best hitters in the game and Jeremy Pena returned from his own injury earlier this month. Yes, the bats are hot-and-cold, but Crow is simply inexperienced and is bound to crack at some point. I think it happens tonight as he goes over this prop line.