Bill Yin breaks down his prediction and pick for tonight’s NBA playoff game between the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Spurs are 13.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 217.5 points.
San Antonio enters Game 1 as unquestionably the better team with the healthier offensive structure, which is why the market has pushed so aggressively toward the Spurs. They went 62-20 with a 119.6 OFFRTG, 111.3 DEFRTG, and +8.3 NETRTG. That matters because San Antonio’s Round 1 win over Portland showed nice postseason flexibility. Victor Wembanyama’s first playoff series was a success, despite missing Game 3 in concussion protocol. But his team stepped up, and they survived through De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper. Wembanyama then returned to restore the defense’s ceiling, and we all know what kind of monster the unanimous DPOY is on that end of the floor. In the Game 5 closeout, San Antonio beat Portland 114-95 behind Fox’s 21 points and nine assists, Wembanyama’s 17 points, 14 rebounds, and six blocks, Julian Champagnie’s 19 points, and Dylan Harper’s 17 off the bench. Portland shot just 35.1% from the field while San Antonio shot 54.7%. Portland’s ugly offense can be attributed to Wembanyama’s presence affecting entire offenses, which is a testament to his otherworldly defensive abilities. The expected starters are Stephon Castle, Fox, Devin Vassell, Champagnie, and Wembanyama. San Antonio’s key is to make Wembanyama more than just a stationary Gobert matchup: move him, space him, use him as a screener, and force Minnesota’s defensive size to guard in rotation.
Minnesota’s regular season is encapsulated by a 49-33 record with a 116.8 OFFRTG, 113.5 DEFRTG, and +3.3 NETRTG. The Timberwolves abused Denver’s lack of defense in Round 1, and managed to win the series without having their best player consistently available. They closed the Nuggets in six games, winning Game 6 by a 110-98 margin while holding Denver to 7/29 from three and winning the glass 50-33. Jaden McDaniels made headlines by declaring all of Denver’s roster to be poor defenders. He backed up his talk with a huge 32 points while helping hound Jamal Murray into a 4/17 shooting night. We also need to give props to Rudy Gobert, whose size behind each play helped turn the Jokic/Murray offense into an inefficient slog. That defensive formula gives Minnesota a real pathway here: McDaniels can pressure the ball, Gobert can live at the rim, Julius Randle can absorb physical frontcourt possessions while Naz Reid gives Chris Finch another big body to throw into the matchup. The problem is the offensive availability. Anthony Edwards is attempting to suit up tonight, having participated in practice already this morning. They also lost Donte DiVincenzo, a critical component of their back court. That’s a brutal blow for a team already facing Wembanyama on the other side. Minnesota may need to win this through defense, rebounding, Randle creation, and McDaniels’ two-way juice. Hopefully they’ll get Edwards back.
I’m not comfortable laying the full spread for the Spurs, but I’m struggling to see how Minnesota ekes out a win tonight on San Antonio’s home floor, even with Edwards potentially available. The Spurs have the best player in the matchup and their defense is stifling. They have the personnel to make Minnesota’s offense labor through ugly possessions, and I’m expecting some ugly, altered shots tonight. Their defensive ceiling with Wemby is such that it could always negate a poor San Antonio shooting night, which is an amazing cushion that gives San Antonio a nice margin of error for winning basketball games.
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