The Reds and Phillies play the third game of their three-game series on Wednesday, May 20.

Philadelphia is a -143 moneyline favorite, while Cincinnati is +119 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 9.5 runs.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Reds vs. Phillies game.

Reds vs. Phillies prediction, preview

Aaron Nola seems to be past his prime. The former All-Star has been in Cy Young conversations a few times throughout his career, but 2026 isn’t one of those campaigns. He has a 5.91 ERA through 45.2 innings, allowing 30 earned runs, 53 hits, nine home runs, 18 walks and 46 strikeouts. Sure, his six scoreless innings against Miami on May 4 was impressive, but that was just one of two starts this year with one or fewer earned runs allowed.

On the bright side, the Reds are an average run-scoring offense. They rank 17th in the majors, so perhaps Nola can limit damage in the series finale. Furthermore, Cincinnati has been inconsistent in recent games. It lost 10-3 to the Guardians on Sunday, May 17 and defeated the Nationals 15-1 on Thursday, May 14. Of course, there’s in between, too, as the Reds lost 5-4 in the series opener against the Phillies.

Andrew Abbott is on the other side of the pitching matchup. The left-hander has a 4.21 ERA across 51.1 innings, allowing 24 earned runs, 54 hits, six home runs, 23 walks and 35 strikeouts this year. He had a rough April, but has been much better in three starts in May. He’s allowed one earned run in three starts and 16.2 innings this month. The one concern in the past three games is his strikeout-walk ratio. He struck out 11 and walked eight. This is a season-long struggle, too, but it’s not a typical problem for the lefty.

The Phillies have a powerful lineup that can get be dangerous when hot. They rank 20th in runs per game, but have the talent to be much better offensively. With Nola’s underwhelming play, the Phillies may need to score a lot of runs to get this victory.

Reds vs. Phillies Pick, Best Bet

Although the Phillies are at home, I’m taking the Reds at plus-money. Cincinnati has the better pitcher of late, and the offenses rank similarly in runs per game this season. The Reds will walk away with a victory before heading home.

Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML (+119)