The Los Angeles Lakers aren’t panicking…yet. No team in NBA history has ever blown a 3-0 lead in a playoff series, and while the Lakers have lost each of the last two games to the Houston Rockets to bring the series back to 3-2, they aren’t quite yet on the brink of unwanted history.

However, that could all change tonight if the Rockets manage to win tonight’s 9:40 p.m. ET Game 6.

Both teams are missing their best players, but that’s basically been the status all series. Luka Dončić (hamstring) isn’t set to return until the middle part of Los Angeles’ potential second round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and while Houston’s Kevin Durant (ankle) has been upgraded after missing four of the series’ first five games, he’s still doubtful.

The Rockets are 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-162 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 205.5. The Lakers are +136 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this potential elimination game and offer a prediction.

Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets preview, prediction

Given that it started the series without Dončić and Austin Reaves, the fact that Los Angeles even took a 3-0 series lead at all is a testament to how much its role players have stepped up. LeBron James is the headliner, leading the way with three 25-plus-point games as a 41-year-old, but Marcus Smart scored at least 15 points in each of the first three games of the series while leading all playoff participants in steals per game, and Luke Kennard averaged 25.0 points per game across the first two games before slowing down. Reaves returned from his oblique strain for Game 5, and though he shot just four-for-16 from the field, he looked healthy and aggressive, earning 13 foul shots.

Houston has learned to adapt without Durant. Despite not converting on his jumpers, Amen Thompson has been tremendous defensively, playing all but 16 minutes and averaging 2.4 steals per game. The other members of the Rockets’ young core have also shown some flashes: Jabari Smith Jr. has made 40% of his threes, Alperen Şengün had a strong performance in Game 3 that nearly was good enough for a win, and Reed Sheppard has had some defensive flashes despite shooting poorly and making a critical turnover late in Game 3 that ultimately flipped the game. They just hadn’t put it all together in the same game until Game 4.

Lakers at Rockets pick, best bet

The Lakers’ interior play continues to be somewhat problematic. During the regular season, Los Angeles allowed the third-highest percentage within five feet, and though it has been somewhat better this series, it’s still allowed Houston to get to the rim at an above-average rate. Additionally, while the Lakers were by far the league’s best finishing during the regular season, they didn’t get downhill very often, and so far this series, their conversion rate has been more pedestrian. Reaves should help with that: during the regular season, he attempted 4.1 shots per game at the rim and made 72.0% of them. On paper, neither team’s primary rim protector is very good; Şengün ranked in just the 32nd percentile in rim points saved per 100 possessions during the regular season, and Deandre Ayton ranked in the 42nd percentile. Both teams should arguably be more effective near the basket than they have so far this series.

Interestingly enough, the team that won the rebounding battle ended up losing the game in each of the series’ first five games, but in the long run, that metric is a relatively consistent indicator of success, and the Rockets have been the better rebounding team both during the regular season and during this series. Houston has decimated Los Angeles in all aspects of the transition game so far, winning or tying the turnover battle in each game despite the Lakers being the far more disciplined team during the regular season. Each team has committed exactly the same number of fouls overall, though Los Angeles has been slightly better about getting to the line, and its margin (the best in the league during the regular season) should grow with Reaves back on the court.

Shooting variation has really been the key in all five games so far. In the first three games of the series, the Lakers shot 46.1% from beyond the arc and the Rockets just 28.7%, but over the last two games, Houston has shot 37.1% from deep and Los Angeles just 24.5%, including one-for-12 in the second half of Game 5. In the long run, the Lakers’ superior shooting should be expected; Luke Kennard led the league in three-point percentage for the third time in the last four seasons, and both Reaves and Hachimura connected on their shots at a rate higher than expected, while Thompson and Şengün were among the league’s worst qualified shooters. However, the Rockets have done a much better job generating open looks, attempting 6.2 more per game, so they should have more opportunities to draw even.

Los Angeles’ edge in raw shooting talent is significant enough that, if Reaves is healthy enough to improve the team’s penetration, rebounding, and turnover margins, the Lakers should be able to close the series out tonight. Still, Houston’s home-court advantage is worth 9.0 points per 100 possessions relative to the same matchup at Crypto.com Arena, and Rockets fans suddenly believe that the impossible is possible. It wouldn’t be surprising if James continued to find success against Tari Eason and both Reaves and Kennard had better shooting performances to lead the team to a win, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if Houston pulled out another close one.

Best bet: Either Team to Win by 5 or Less (+200)