Brendan O’Sullivan dives into his pick and prediction for the Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Minnesota Twins game on Sunday, May 31.
The Pirates and Twins play the third game of their three-game series on Sunday, May 31.
Pittsburgh is a -163 moneyline favorite, while Minnesota is +135 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Pirates vs. Twins game.
Both teams entered this series on a two-game losing streak, but it’s the Pirates who have shown up through the first two games. Pittsburgh’s offense has been electric, winning 6-5 and 10-9 to clinch the series. Sunday’s game is still important as the Pirates go for the sweep, and the Twins look to stop a four-game skid.
Zebby Matthews is starting for Minnesota, which has been a good thing for the team this season. The right-hander struggled in limited starts across his first two seasons in the majors, but he’s holding a 2.37 ERA through three starts and 19 innings in 2026. The length of his outings have been excellent, as he’s pitched as least 6.0 innings in all three appearances. He needs to limit home runs (three in three starts), but he’s has a 17-2 strikeout-walk ratio. A scoreless start may not be possible, but limiting this Pittsburgh offense to just a couple runs would be a victory in itself.
The Pirates teed off on the Twins’ starters thus far. They tallied four earned runs, five hits, and two walks on Taj Bradley, and they added seven earned, 12 hits, and one walk against Bailey Ober. Matthews has quite the challenge awaiting him. Minnesota has allowed at least six runs in four straight games.
Braxton Ashcraft is similar to Matthews in that he pitches deep into games and has a sub-3.00 ERA. The difference is the sample size. Ashcraft has a 2.75 ERA through 68.2 innings and 11 starts. In May, he has a 1.82 ERA across 34.2 innings, while pitching at least 6.1 frames in all five of his outings. This is his first year as a full-time starter, but Ashcraft had a 2.71 ERA in eight starts and 26 total appearances last year as a rookie.
The Twins’ pitching has been brutal recently, allowing at least six runs in four straight games. Matthews should stop this streak, but Bradley was supposed to do the same on Friday. That obviously didn’t happen. Matthews’ sample size isn’t large enough for me to feel comfortable siding with Minnesota.
Pirates have the scorching offense and the better starter with more innings under his belt this season.
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