Brendan O’Sullivan dives into his pick and prediction for the New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals game on Tuesday, April 28.
The Mets and Nationals play the first game of their three-game series on Tuesday, April 28.
New York is a -186 moneyline favorite, while Washington is +153 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under eight runs.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Mets vs. Nationals game.
The NL East is disappointing. The Braves, Mets and Phillies should be in a three-way race for the division title with the Marlins making some strides as a dark horse. Thus far, the Braves are leading the Marlins and Nationals by seven games, and the Mets and Phillies are tied for last with 9-19 records. They’re the only two teams in the majors with fewer than 10 wins.
With the amount of talent in New York, there’s belief that the season can be salvaged. It’s not even May yet, so it would be irresponsible to write off the Mets. That said, they’re not giving fans much hope. The Rockies swept the Mets in the last series, and New York has only won two games since April 8.
While some of those series were against elite clubs like the Dodgers and Cubs, others were against the Athletics and Rockies. The Nationals fall into the latter category with a 13-16 record. They’re much better on the road (10-6) than at home (3-10).
The bright side for New York is that Clay Holmes is starting. The former closer turned starter has a 2.10 ERA across five starts and 30.0 innings. He’s pitched seven innings twice this season, proving he’s capable of long, quality outings. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs and five hits in a single game this year, but just 19 total strikeouts isn’t the most appealing.
Zack Littell is on the mound for Washington. His starts have been disastrous this season, but maybe a dormant Mets’ lineup is what he needs to bounce back. The 30-year-old right-hander has a 7.56 ERA through 25.0 innings and five starts. He’s allowed 14 earned runs over his past two starts, and 11 home runs to just 15 strikeouts all season.
As mentioned, the Mets are struggling offensively, averaging the fewest runs per game (3.29) in the majors. Is that enough for Littell to limit damage?
I’d like to take Nationals moneyline for the value, but I don’t think Washington’s offense can beat Holmes. At the same time, I don’t believe there’s any value in taking the Mets at -186, even against Littell.
Maybe all Littell needs is a matchup with New York to shine. He allowed one earned run, three walks and four hits in five innings against the Cardinals earlier this month. He also allowed three earned runs in five frames against both the Phillies and Brewers.
It’s unlikely the Mets’ offense explodes, and it’s likely that Holmes quiets the Nationals’ lineup. Let’s take the under.
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