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MLB Best Bets: Top Home Run Props for Monday 5/11/26
Garion Thorn · 2026-05-11 · via DraftKings Network

Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight’s slate, including bets for Corey Seager and Rafael Devers.

Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.

Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s condensed six-game slate: Corey Seager and Rafael Devers.

Let’s break them down.

Top MLB Home Run Props

Corey Seager 1+ Home Run (+417)

It’s been a strange start to the season for Corey Seager.

The oft-injured 32-year-old has been healthy, suiting up for 39 games and 170 plate appearances, yet a massive uptick in strikeout rate (27.6%) and some BABIP misfortune (.226) have the former All-Star entering play on Monday hitting below the Mendoza line (.193). Heck, Seager doesn’t even have a hit in any of his past four contests. Not ideal. Still, with all that said, the shortstop does have seven home runs and a .252 ISO specifically against RHPs in 2026. Seager also sports a 93rd percentile barrel rate (17.0%) and an 84th percentile hard hit rate (49.0%). It feels like normalization is on the horizon, and it might start this evening in a matchup with Michael Soroka.

It’s not that Soroka’s been awful on the whole — 42 strikeouts in 37.0 innings and a 3.39 FIP suggest he’s actually been quite solid — yet the veteran right-handed has struggled severely when facing LHBs this season. In fact, opposing lefties are slashing .337/.406/.500 with a .403 wOBA off Soroka through seven outings with the Diamondbacks. A 13th percentile opponent barrel rate (12.1%) looms large, as well.

Rafael Devers 1+ Home Run (+361)

We have signs of life from Rafael Devers. Finally.

The 29-year-old has started to look like himself in the month of May, slashing .333/.382/.667 with a .333 ISO and a 188 wRC+. Now, we’re only taking about a sample of 34 plate appearances, but for the Giants, who own the league’s most underwhelming offense, any positivity is a welcomed gift. It’s also not like it’s been forever since we’ve seen Devers operating at an All-Star level. He hit 35 home runs with a 135 wRC+ just last season, splitting his time between Boston and San Francisco. I’m far more inclined to believe this is the real version of the slugger, at least as opposed to what we were seeing throughout April.

Devers will have a golden opportunity to stay red-hot on Monday evening, as the Giants will take on Roki Sasaki and the Dodgers. I’ll just begin by saying this about Sasaki: I don’t think he’ll be in the majors much longer. Since a decent four-inning outing to start 2026, Sasaki’s pitched to a 6.57 ERA with a 7.49 FIP in his last five appearances. In that span of 24.2 innings, opponents are averaging 2.92 home runs per nine with a .580 slugging percentage and a .422 wOBA. Woof. It’s safe to say that the Sasaki experiment has not gone to plan to this point.