The Yankees and Mets play the third game of their three-game series on Sunday, May 17.

The Yankees are -112 moneyline favorites, while the Mets are -107 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under eight runs.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Yankees vs. Mets game.

Yankees vs. Mets prediction, preview

The Subway Series has lived up to expectations. The Yankees won the first game on the road, and the Mets took game two. Sunday’s matinee decides who has bragging rights in New York—until the next Subway series at least.

The Mets own the pitching advantage with Freddy Peralta on the mound. In his first season with the Mets, Peralta has a 3.10 ERA through 49.1 innings. He hasn’t had a signature start yet, but he’s pitched multiple six-inning games with fewer than two earned runs allowed. A dominant start at Citi Field on Sunday would electrify the fanbase.

Of course that’s easier said than done. The Yankees average the fourth most runs per game thanks to an elite top of the order. Ben Rice, Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger are playing well to start the season and will pose a challenge in the series finale.

The pitching is where things get dicey. Elmer Rodriguez is making his third career start. He has a 5.19 ERA, five strikeouts, eight walks, 10 hits and five earned runs in 8.2 innings. Both games were against the Rangers, so this will be a different lineup, but the first two starts weren’t promising.

Until he limits his walks, players like Juan Soto will feast on the rookie right-hander. With Carlos Rodon only pitching 3.2 innings on Saturday, the bullpen will likely have another busy day—unless Rodriguez shines.

Yankees vs. Mets Pick, Best Bet

Forget the records and forget the historic losing streak a few weeks ago. The Mets are playing better and have a major pitching edge for Sunday’s matchup. Between that and home-field advantage, the Mets should be favorites.

Best Bet: New York Mets (-107)