The long grind of the NBA regular season is over, and the full postseason bracket has been established. The play-in tournament will decide which teams earn the bottom two seeds in their respective conference. Facing off in the seventh-seed vs. eighth-seed matchup, the Phoenix Suns will host the Portland Trail Blazers at the Mortgage Matchup Center.

The game’s winner will earn the seventh seed in the playoffs and a first-round date with the Spurs. Whichever team falls short will then play the winner of the ninth-seed vs. 10th-seed game between the Clippers and Warriors. The winner of that game will take on the Thunder in the opening round, while the loser sees its season come to an end.

The Suns are 4.5-point favorites for the Western Conference showdown on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Blazers sit as a +140 underdog, with the game total set at 217.5 points.

Let’s dive into my preview and prediction for the Tuesday night play-in battle.

Trail Blazers at Suns Preview

The Trail Blazers finished the season with a 42-40 record, good for eighth place in the Western Conference. Portland entered the season with its season-long win total set at 32.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, comfortably exceeding expectations. This will mark the organization’s first postseason opportunity since the 2020-21 campaign. During the regular season, the Blazers went 44-38 against the spread and 42-40 to the over/under.

Deni Avdija has blossomed into an All-Star, speeding up the organization’s contention timeline in the process. He averaged 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game across the regular season. Shaedon Sharpe showed some encouraging growth, adding 20.8 points and 4.3 rebounds. Scoot Henderson has also continued his development with 14.2 points and 3.7 assists per contest. Jerami Grant contributed 18.6 points, while Jrue Holiday chipped in 16.3 points, 6.1 assists, and 4.6 rebounds as veteran leaders on the team. Donovan Clingan averaged 12.1 points and 11.6 rebounds, including an NBA-leading 4.6 offensive boards. Toumani Camara, Matisse Thybulle, Robert Williams III, and Kris Murray also play key roles in the rotation.

Interim coach Thiago Splitter’s squad ranked 17th league-wide in scoring, also sitting 21st in offensive rating, 29th in field-goal percentage, and 28th in three-point percentage. Defensively, Portland ranked 17th in points allowed, 14th in defensive rating, 16th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 15th in opponent three-point percentage.

The Suns finished the regular season with a 45-37 record to earn the West’s seventh seed. They also comfortably eclipsed their season-long win total on DraftKings Sportsbook, which was initially set at 31.5 coming into the season. Phoenix went 47-35 against the spread and fell under the game total in 46 of its 82 games.

Five-time All-Star Devin Booker headlines the production for the Suns, and he averaged 26.1 points, six assists, and 3.9 rebounds per game during the regular season. Dillon Brooks flourished in his first season in Phoenix, adding 20.2 points and 3.6 rebounds while setting the tone on both ends of the floor. Jalen Green battled injuries in his first season with the franchise but finished with averages of 17.8 points and 3.6 rebounds across 32 contests. Grayson Allen pitched in 16.5 points on a team-high 3.1 threes per game. Collin Gillespie also had a breakout season, averaging 12.7 points, 4.6 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per contest. Mark Williams, Royce O’Neal, and Jordan Goodwin have also played notable roles.

Jordan Ott’s squad ranked 26th league-wide in scoring, 17th in offensive rating, 28th in field-goal percentage, and 12th in three-point percentage. On the other end, Phoenix sat sixth in points allowed, ninth in defensive rating, 15th in opponent field-goal percentage, and second in opponent three-point percentage.

Jordan Ott’s squad ranks 26th in the league in scoring at 112.6 points per contest. Phoenix also ranks 16th in offensive rating, 28th in field-goal percentage, and 12th in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Suns are giving up the sixth-fewest points at 111.1 points per game. They also rank 10th in defensive rating, 15th in opponent field-goal percentage and second in opponent three-point percentage.

Trail Blazers at Suns Prediction, Best Bet

Both these organizations are in a similar spot. Both franchises should be thrilled with this season’s results after turning the page in the summer, yet they’re still a ways away from becoming true postseason threats.

These teams faced off three times during the regular season, with the Suns winning the first two matchups, 127-110 and 130-125. The Blazers got the last laugh in February with a 92-77 victory. It’s worth noting that Avdija suffered an injury in the first minute of that matchup, while Booker and Brooks missed the game entirely.

Both teams have some offensive concerns and show flashes of elite defense. My lean would be for the game total to remain under the 217.5-point line, though this number is a bit lower than I was hoping it would settle. Their last regular-season matchup yielded just 169 points, and given the playoff-like intensity, points could remain at a premium Tuesday night.

However, I am backing the Trail Blazers to pull off the road upset in this play-in matchup. Portland boasts an imposing front court that should be the difference-maker. Avdija attacks the glass with ferocity, and Phoenix has no clear answers for Clingan or Williams. The Blazers rank sixth in rebounds per game and second in contested boards per contest, while the Suns sit in the NBA’s bottom 11 for both categories.

There’s a case for the Suns having more top-end offensive talent. But with Booker and Green tending to be overly dependent on mid-range shots, they require other players to get hot from the perimeter. That spells trouble against a Blazers defense that ranks fifth in opponent three-point attempts per game.

The Trail Blazers have several pathways to reliable scoring, primarily in transition and on the offensive glass. Expect this to be the difference as both sides lean on their defense in a heightened matchup. Count on Holiday to pull the right strings on offense, and for Portland’s tough interior to lift the organization to its first playoff appearance in five seasons.

Best Bet: Trail Blazers Moneyline (+140)