Zach Thompson shares his three favorite MLB no run first inning (NRFI) prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s slate.
Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple.
With that in mind, here are my top three NRFI picks for Monday’s slate of MLB action.
The Red Sox and Royals rank in the bottom 10 in runs scored overall this season and in the bottom five in runs scored over the last week. Even though the wind will be blowing out in Kansas City, veterans Sonny Gray and Seth Lugo should be able to get through the first inning clean.
Both veterans have 77% NRFI in their careers. Lugo has not allowed a run in six of his nine starts this season, while Gray has not allowed a run in the first frame of five of his seven outings, including each of his last three in a row.
The Royals have the fourth-highest NRFI hit rate in the majors this season. The Red Sox are also above league average in NRFI hits this season, although all three of their games in Atlanta over the weekend had runs scored in the first inning.
Both teams’ offenses have disappointed this year, and for the first inning of this series in Kansas City, that trend has a good chance to continue.
Two strong offenses meet in San Diego in one of the West Coast games, but I still like this as a nice NRFI spot based on the pitching matchup between Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Michael King.
King has had a nice bounce-back start to the season after being limited by injuries last year and is 3-2 with a 2.63 ERA and 3.68 FIP. He has been even better at home with a 2.35 ERA and 3.57 FIP. Going against the potent Dodgers lineup always seems risky, but statistically, they have produced an above league average with a hit rate of 55% on NRFI this year. King hasn’t given up a run in any of his nine starts this season, and he’ll look to keep his streak going this Monday night at Petco Park.
Yamamoto has given up a first-inning run in three of his eight starts this season, but the Padres lead the majors with a 71.7% NRFI rate this season, scoring a run in the first inning only 15.2% of the time this year. The only team with fewer times scoring a run in the first inning is the Red Sox (see above NRFI pick).
Yamamoto has struggled against the Padres in the past and is coming off a tough outing last week, but he has a good chance to get through the first inning clean, making this a sneaky spot for value Monday night.
The Angels are coming off a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers and have lost six straight games while managing to score more than two runs just once in their last nine games. Their struggling offense will take on J.T. Ginn on Monday night, while they give the ball to Walbert Urena to attempt to stop their skid.
Urena has not allowed a run in the first inning of any of his five MLB starts, all coming this season. The 22-year-old righty has only needed an average of 13 pitches to get through his five opening frames, and he has yet to face over the minimum three hitters. The A’s have scored in the first inning in 23.9% of their games this season, which is below league average.
Ginn has looked strong in his last few starts for the A’s and has not allowed a run in six of his first seven starts of the season. He has not allowed a run in the first inning in any of his last four starts and should be in a good spot to keep rolling against the Angels’ scuffling offense.
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