The Cubs and Pirates arrive at PNC Park tied at 29-26, but the two clubs do not feel remotely tied in the standings of momentum. Pittsburgh has won three straight, just buried Chicago 12-1 behind 15 hits and a five-run first inning, and has started to look like the more functional run-creation group in this series. The Cubs have now lost 10 straight, their longest skid since 2022, and Tuesday’s blowout captured the full frustration of the slide: traffic without enough payoff, pitching stress after the starter exited early, and a bullpen forced to cover more innings while the offense stranded chances. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Pirates vs. Cubs prediction, preview

Jameson Taillon gives Pittsburgh the clearest path to another scoring night. The Cubs right-hander enters at 2-4 with a 5.20 ERA, and the contact profile is even more dangerous than the surface line: a .354-.359 wOBA allowed range, a .353-.356 expected wOBA, 87.8-88.1 mph average exit velocity, 36.2%-38.0% hard-hit rate, a 14.5%-14.8% barrel rate and a 17.8-degree average launch angle. His mix is varied—29.2% four-seamers, 21.0% cutters, 15.0% sweepers, 14.8% changeups, 11.1% curveballs and 8.9% sinkers—but the issue is how often hitters are getting the ball in the air with real shape. Bubba Chandler adds volatility on the other side with a 4.79 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 16.0% walk rate, so this matchup has traffic risk both ways. The difference is that Taillon’s barrel profile gives Pittsburgh the better scoring target.

The Pirates’ lineup has enough different ways to stress that contact flaw. Konnor Griffin leads off after becoming the youngest Pirate in 74 years to do so Tuesday, and his 45 hits, 12 steals and speed pressure matter in front of the actual damage bats. Brandon Lowe brings the clean left-handed lift profile at .270 with 13 HR, 33 RBI and a .907 OPS, plus 10 hits, five runs and a .385/.429/.577 slash over his last seven. Bryan Reynolds has 10 hits, eight RBI and four runs over his last 10, then backed that up Tuesday with two hits and two RBI. Nick Gonzales gives Pittsburgh another contact bridge before Oneil Cruz, who had three hits Tuesday and owns 11 HR, 35 RBI and a .790 OPS, with 17 hits, two HR, seven RBI, nine runs and three steals over his last 15. Spencer Horwitz batting eighth is almost unfair to the bottom of the order: he carries a .389 OBP, 26 walks against 24 strikeouts, a .294 average vs. right-handed pitching, and just homered with two hits and two RBI in the series opener.

Chicago has enough individual bats to make the full-game total dangerous, but the Cubs’ offense has been too uneven to make the broader over as clean as a Pittsburgh-specific angle. Michael Busch is the real counterpunch, hitting .269/.457/.692 with a 1.149 OPS, three HR, seven RBI and seven walks over his last 10 against right-handed pitching. Alex Bregman has still been finding contact, going 8-for-31 recently vs. righties, though the .290 slugging in that split shows how little extra-base force has come with it. Ian Happ owns seven HR and a .388 OBP vs. right-handed pitching, but the situational profile has been brutal at .143 with runners in scoring position. Seiya Suzuki is the coldest danger sign in the middle of the order, sitting 3-for-32 with a .094/.121/.125 line and 12 strikeouts over his last 10 vs. righties. As a team, Chicago’s last 10 against right-handed pitching have produced a .192/.307/.327 slash, .633 OPS, 47 hits and 64 strikeouts. That is enough to threaten Chandler, but not enough to make the Cubs half of the scoreboard worth trusting.

Cubs vs. Pirates pick, best bet

The market leaves the best number on Pittsburgh’s scoring column. The Pirates are -119 on the moneyline, their hits total sits at 8.5 with even-money juice, and the full-game total is 9, but the team total over 4.5 at +105 captures the cleanest part of the matchup. It attacks Taillon’s barrel and launch-angle problems, keeps access to a Cubs bullpen that had to use Jordan Wicks for 80 pitches Tuesday and still needed Ryan Rolison, Daniel Palencia and Hoby Milner, and benefits from every run-conversion path: walks, steals, doubles, homers, errors and the middle innings. Taillon’s situational splits sharpen the case. He has been far more stable with the bases empty, but his ERA jumps to 9.45 with runners on base and 12.75 with runners in scoring position. Pittsburgh already showed Tuesday how quickly that can snowball when Griffin reaches, Cruz drives the ball, Reynolds keeps innings alive and the bottom third refuses to be dead space.

The best bet is Pirates team total over 4.5 (+105), playable to -105. Pittsburgh has the hotter offense, the better right-handed pitching split, the deeper run-creation texture and the more direct matchup against a starter allowing too many barrels in the air. The bet loses if Taillon finds the ground-ball version of himself, Ozuna stalls the middle of the order and Chicago’s bullpen finally stabilizes after a rough stretch. The better read is another Pittsburgh night with enough traffic before the late innings and enough damage once Taillon has to pitch with men aboard.

Prediction: Pirates 6, Cubs 4.

Best bet: Pirates TT o4.5 runs (+105) vs. Cubs

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