Last season, the American League saw a 60-HR hitter, when the Seattle Mariners’ Cal Raleigh deposited 60 baseballs into the bleachers en route to a second-place finish in MVP voting. This season, the AL is on pace to have another; this time, it’s not Raleigh but Chicago White Sox rookie sensation Munetaka Murakami, who hit two home runs last night to break a brief slump.

Tonight at 9:40 p.m. ET, the White Sox and the Mariners will begin a three-game series in Seattle.

Noah Schultz will start the series opener for Chicago, and the Mariners will counter with staff ace Bryan Woo.

Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners prediction, preview

Given the young talent on their roster, the White Sox were expected to improve, but even the most optimistic of Chicago fans wouldn’t have predicted the team’s current stretch of seven wins in eight games to bring it two games above .500 and into a title fight in the AL Central. The White Sox’s offense, which was the third-worst unit in the league by OPS in 2025, has been its seventh-best so far in 2026, thanks not only to Murakami but also to Miguel Vargas and Chase Miedroth, who have combined for 30 home runs to emerge as arguably the best right-side infield duo in the league. Chicago’s offense has been good enough to withstand regression in the bullpen, which dropped from 18th to 24th in ERA because offseason signings Seranthony Domínguez and Jordan Hicks have been poor. All in all, the White Sox have gotten slightly lucky, with a Pythagorean win-loss record two games worse than their actual mark, but the progress that they’ve made is significant.

Meanwhile, the 22-26 Mariners have had a rough start to the season. They’re cold, having lost three games in a row after getting swept by the San Diego Padres, though at 25-23, they actually have a better expected win-loss record than Chicago does. While Seattle ended 2025 as one of the hotter offenses in baseball, it ranks ninth-to-last in OPS so far this season, with Raleigh at a miserable .161/.243/.560 slash line with just seven homers and offseason signing Brendan Donovan is currently on his second stint on the injured list. Still, on the bright side, the Mariners’ rotation has performed similarly to how it did in 2025, and their bullpen has been even better, with Jose A. Ferrer, Eduard Bazardo, and Cooper Criswell serving as an elite setup trio ahead of closer Andrés Muñoz, who has struggled mightily this season. Seattle’s pitching staff has been good enough that it should start to rack up wins as soon as Raleigh and Leo Rivas (who’s also below the Mendoza Line) start hitting.

Unfortunately for the White Sox, they don’t have their strongest starter on the mound. Schultz, a six-foot-10 lefty who’s the organization’s second-ranked prospect, had a strong first four career starts, but he gave up seven runs in just 3.2 innings of work on May 6 and followed it up with a 4.1-inning, three-run effort on May 13, raising his ERA to 4.91. All in all, he ranks in just the 26th percentile in expected ERA, and he’s really struggled with his command, posting just a third-percentile walk rate and issuing four or more free passes in four of his six starts. His command issues could make the Mariners a massive problem, given that they’ve walked the sixth-most times this season. Still, there are some positives: he throws hard, and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the 67th percentile or higher, which should allow him to further stymie a Seattle offense that hasn’t hit the ball very hard this season. He was also elite in his three appearances with Triple-A Charlotte prior to his elevation, and he was significantly better on the road in nine starts last season. The Mariners have been slightly better at home, but they’ve been much worse against lefties, so Schultz should at least have the platoon edge.

Either way, Seattle should have the edge in the starting pitching matchup. Despite an awful pair of starts bisecting the start of the month (13 earned runs allowed across nine innings), Woo has bounced back with a couple of gems in a row, combining for 12 innings, two runs, and five hits over his last two starts. His overall numbers are still elite: he ranks in the 86th percentile in pitching run value and in the top two quintiles in expected ERA, expected batting average, expected wOBA, chase rate, and walk rate. Still, there are a few causes for concern in Woo’s repertoire; because he’s heavily reliant on his four-seam fastball without significant horizontal movement, he has just a 24th-percentile hard-hit rate and a seventh-percentile ground ball rate. Chicago is well-suited to take advantage; it mashes the ball but is often undone by hitting the ball too low. Still, Woo should be able to keep the damage reasonable, especially at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, where he has a sub-3 ERA in his four-season MLB career.

Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners pick, best bet

Best Bet: Seattle Mariners 1st Run of Game (-110)

Murakami, Montgomery, or Vargas could make me regret this with one swing, but the Mariners have been comparatively solid with runners on base, and they should have plenty of those unless Schultz gets his pitches under control. I’m not saying Woo giving up a run would be a surprise, but I expect Schultz to blink first.

Strong Lean: Randy Arozarena 2+ Hits + Walks + Stolen Bases (-105)

Arozarena is one of the only Seattle hitters who’s having a good season at the plate, as his .301/.386/.445 is his best since he burst onto the scene in 2020 as a rookie. He’s had at least two H/W/SB in six of his last seven games, and he has a .714 slugging percentage against the lefty four-seamers that Schultz likes to offer.