Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Monday’s FIFA World Cup match between Cabo Verde and Spain.
On October 14, 2025, Cabo Verde rejoiced, as the archipelago off the western coast of Africa became the smallest nation (by both land area and population) ever to qualify for the World Cup. For the Blue Sharks, just being on North American soil is a success.
On Monday at 12 p.m. ET in Atlanta, Cabo Verde’s journey will begin. The ultimate test awaits the Blue Sharks right at the start: a Group H showdown against World No. 2 Spain.
La Roja are -1200 favorites to take all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Blue Sharks are +2500. There are +1100 odds that the teams will share the points.
Below, I’ll break down the group opener and provide my favorite bet.
To be clear, Cabo Verde’s presence at this tournament is no fluke. The Blue Sharks had a strong performance in African qualifying, dropping just one game against perennial participants Cameroon, and they picked up a pair of 3-0 victories over Serbia and Bermuda in pre-tournament friendlies. The rest of their matches weren’t so difficult, and one of their two results against the Indomitable Lions was a 4-1 defeat, but to escape African qualifying with just the one loss is impressive. However, Spain is a proper juggernaut. Luis de la Fuente’s men didn’t concede a goal in European qualifying until the final match, after they’d already secured qualification, and while their friendly results (draws to Egypt and Iraq) haven’t been great, de la Fuente played heavily rotated sides in both of those games. At the end of the day, La Roja are the 2024 Euro champions and have arguably the best player in the world on their roster.
Bubista has been able to tap into Cabo Verde’s deep network of expatriates within Portugal when building his squad. Four players on the Blue Sharks’ squad play in Portugal’s top flight, and three others play in the second tier, including left back Stopira, who helped Torreense win the Portuguese Cup. Additionally, Dailon Livramento, who was born in the Netherlands and scored 16 goals in the Dutch second flight in 2023-24, managed four goals during qualification as Cabo Verde scored 16 in total, more than fellow qualifiers South Africa. Defensively, the Blue Sharks also thrived; throughout World Cup qualification, they allowed just seven goals, keeping seven clean sheets, and they did much of it without their star defender Logan Costa, who went down with a torn ACL in July 2025 but has since recovered. His center-back partner, Pico, is an every-day starter for Shamrock Rovers. Behind Costa and Pico, goalkeeper Vozinha brings plenty of experience, and the team has been very disciplined, picking up among the fewest yellow cards during qualification.
Unfortunately for the Blue Sharks, it’ll take a lot more than discipline and a feisty defense to beat Spain. La Roja have virtually no weaknesses, as the attacking trio of Lamine Yamal (likely limited to 15 minutes because of a hamstring injury he suffered on club duty), Nico Williams, and either Mikel Oyarzabal or Ferrán Torres is one of the strongest in the competition. Spain managed the most shots on target and fifth-most goals per 90 minutes in European qualifying despite Yamal’s only playing two matches, as Oyarzabal and Arsenal forward Mikel Merino combined for 12 and Torres added two in just 261 minutes. Further back, La Roja still have 2024 Ballon d’Or winner Rodri and Martín Zubimendi to serve as options in the defensive midfield alongside attacking midfielders Pedri, Fabián Ruiz, and Dani Olmo, as well as the Barcelona center-back duo of Pau Cubarsi and Eric García and three of the world’s best goalkeepers (David Raya, Unai Simón, and Joan García). Given all of its talent in the defense, perhaps it’s no surprise that Spain allowed the second-fewest goals and fourth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes throughout European qualifying. To boot, La Roja were even more disciplined than Cabo Verde.
At the World Cup level, there aren’t too many matches in which one team has a clear advantage in every single aspect of the game, but this is one of them. The Blue Sharks’ defense can keep things under control against most opponents, and Krasnodar’s Kevin Pina is a No. 6 capable of anchoring the center of the defense and allowing wing-backs João Paulo Fernandes and Steven Moreira to push forward, but giving up four goals to Cameroon isn’t encouraging. Even without Yamal for most of the match, I’d expect Spain to dominate possession and keep putting pressure on Vozinha in a comfortable win.
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