Phillies veteran Zack Wheeler, Rays journeyman Nick Martinez and Dodgers righty Roki Sasaki are among the aces set to take the mound Friday. Sam Connon shares his picks and predictions in regards to the three starting pitchers’ strikeout prop bets.
There are a handful of aces taking the mound Friday, from Phillies veteran Zack Wheeler to Dodgers youngster Roki Sasaki and Rays standout Nick Martinez. Can Wheeler cap off a dominant June? Will Martinez continue his career year? Which version of Sasaki will show up in San Diego? Here is our full breakdown of where we think each starting pitcher will wind up in the strikeout column.
For starters, Wheeler has hit seven-plus strikeouts in three of his last four appearances. That includes his most recent outing, which came against these very same Mets last Sunday. So while New York’s lineup ranks a middling No. 16 in strikeouts per game, Wheeler has proven himself against this bunch. And now that the Mets have fired manager Carlos Mendoza, I can see them becoming even less disciplined at the plate. Since making his season debut in late April, Wheeler’s Chase % ranks in the 90th percentile across MLB, while his K % ranks in the 77th and his Whiff % ranks in the 71st. He is 7-1 with a 2.11 ERA, 0.878 WHIP and 9.1 K/9, thanks in large part to his 3-0 record, 1.82 ERA, 0.932 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 in June alone.
At age 35, Martinez is having the most productive season of his career. He is 6-2 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.157 WHIP and 2.6 WAR through 15 starts with the Rays. And even though his strikeout per nine innings has taken a dip for a third straight season, he has managed to punch out five and six over his last two starts. On the whole this season, Martinez is 9-for-15 when it comes to recording four or more strikeouts. The D-backs limit strikeouts better than any other team in MLB, but they do average 32.6% more strikeouts on the road than they do at home. A bottom-seven strikeout team like the Dodgers also went down via the K six times against Martinez, too, so he has proven capable of rising to a serious challenge.
Sasaki has given up three or fewer earned runs in six of his seven starts since the beginning of May, resulting in a solid 3.97 ERA over that span. Averaging 5.2 innings per start over that span has helped Sasaki put up solid strikeout totals, too, reaching at least six in three of his last four and four of his last six. He has only come in below four strikeouts in one start this season, meaning his floor is pretty high. Sasaki’s 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.63 FIP since May 1 are both superior to his 8.7 and 7.16 marks from March and April, so he has been trending in the right direction in spite of the occasional hiccup. Sasaki ranks in the 77th percentile in Whiff %, per Baseball Savant, as well as 70th in Chase % and 61st in K %. Also, seven of the last nine starters to face the Padres have reached six or more strikeouts.
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