Meghan Townsley previews Tuesday’s WNBA matchup between the Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury and provides her best pick.
Tip-off weekend brought fierce competition, strong storylines, and even more anticipation for the WNBA’s 30th season. On Tuesday, the Olivia Miles and the Minnesota Lynx look to notch their first win of the season against the 1-1 Phoenix Mercury. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET, with Phoenix coming in as 4.5-point favorites and the total sitting at 168.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Plus, DraftKings Sportbook is offering a 30% profit boost to use on a WNBA SGP or SGPx bet today, celebrating the W’s 30th season. Head here to opt in!
Let’s get into it!
Phoenix opened its 2026 season with a bang, routing the reigning champion Las Vegas Aces 99–66, with every starter scoring in double figures and Natasha Mack shining with a 10-point, 15-rebound double-double. The momentum slowed in Game 2, though, as a surging Golden State squad took down the Mercury 95–79. Even with the small sample size, we can take away a few early trends. First, Alyssa Thomas is still a dominant force at 34 years old, posting 20 and 19 points in her first two games while combining for 20 assists and 15 rebounds. Her physical, do-it-all style continues to drive this offense. Second, Jovana Nogić, a 28-year-old from Serbia, has made an immediate impact with 35 total points across her first two WNBA games. Third, despite losing Satou Sabally to the New York Liberty, Phoenix is already showing signs of improved depth — something that could keep this team competitive in the top half of the standings.
Against the Valkyries, a defensively minded team, Phoenix was efficient from deep, shooting 50% from beyond the arc. However, turnovers were an issue, with 17 total giveaways, including six from Thomas, leading to 24 points for Golden State. Taking care of the ball will be key against a Lynx team that thrives on capitalizing on mistakes and is hungry for a win after a one-point loss in its opener.
Minnesota rolls into this matchup without star Napheesa Collier, who is recovering from ankle surgery in late March. Still, the Lynx saw plenty of promise from No. 2 overall pick Olivia Miles. The 5’10” guard out of TCU impressed in her debut, posting 21 points, three rebounds, and eight assists in a narrow loss to Atlanta. With Collier sidelined, Miles immediately stepped into a larger role as the primary facilitator and looked comfortable doing so.
Despite shooting 50% from the field compared to Atlanta’s 42%, Minnesota struggled from three, hitting just 5-of-18 attempts; that could be a swing factor again in this matchup. Phoenix has shown more scoring depth through two games, while the Lynx are still adjusting to offseason changes and the absence of their top player. Kayla McBride was a bright spot with 20 points in the opener, but on paper, the Mercury carry the stronger and more balanced offensive attack heading into tonight.
Despite being without Napheesa Collier and losing multiple offensive pieces in the offseason, the Lynx still managed to put up 90 points in their opener. That said, it’s hard to ignore the early promise and depth Phoenix has shown, and I’m leaning toward the Mercury in this matchup tonight.
Lean: Mercury Moneyline
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