The 2026 Madrid Open is headed into the semifinals. There is a spectacular semifinal matchup between Jannik Sinner and Arthur Fils. Sinner is the best player in the world, but Fils is a rising star who has proven himself on clay in 2026. It should be a great match between these two excellent players.

Jannik Sinner is -1120 to win the match, while Arthur Fils is listed at +670 on DraftKings Sportsbook to pull off the upset of a lifetime. The match begins at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Jannik Sinner vs. Arthur Fils Prediction

Arthur Fils is a rising star in the sport. The 21-year-old Frenchman has risen up to be the No. 25 player in the world. He is coming off a convincing win over Jiri Lehecka in the quarter-finals, where he won 6-3, 6-4. Fils is coming off his third career ATP 500 title, winning the Barcelona Open. After making it to this semi-final, Arthur Fils is now 9-0 playing on clay this year. He has a chance to pull off the biggest win of his career if he can take down the No. 1 player in the world and move on to his first-ever ATP Masters 1000 final.

Jannik Sinner is the best player in the world. Ever since losing to Carlos Alcaraz at the Australian Open, he has been on an absolute roll. Sinner won the Sunshine Double, then continued his dominance in Monte-Carlo despite having to move to clay. Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic are both out of the picture for this tournament and possibly Rome and Roland Garros as well. That gives Sinner a chance to scoop up a couple of big titles on clay, including the French Open. That is the one Grand Slam that has alluded him. This is his best chance to complete the career Grand Slam, with Carlos Alcaraz out of the picture. Sinner hopes to keep all of this positive momentum and claim the title here in Madrid.

Jannik Sinner vs. Arthur Fils Pick, Best Bet

My best bet for this match is for the two players to go over the total of 21.5 games. In Jannik Sinner’s previous match, he took on another young phenom who excels on clay, Rafael Jodar. Jodar is much more inexperienced and unproven in these high-level matches compared to Fils. Despite that, Jodar pushed their match to 21 games by forcing a second-set tiebreaker.

Arthur Fils has much more experience in these big matches than Jodar. He has nine career wins against top-10 players. Four of those nine upset wins came on clay. This is a surface where Arthur Fils feels like he can beat anybody in the world. While Jannik Sinner has been brilliant on clay the last few weeks, it is still his worst surface historically. It would be monumental for Arthur Fils to pull off the upset, but I would not put it past him to do so. Worst case, Arthur Fils should compete with Sinner in both sets and possibly even steal one. All he has to do to go over this number is win one more game than Rafael Jodar did. That should be no problem for the red-hot Arthur Fils.

Best Bet: Arthur Fils/Jannik Sinner o21.5 Games (-110)