Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight’s slate, including bets for Josh Jung, Jonathan Aranda and Colson Montgomery.
Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s jam-packed slate: Josh Jung, Jonathan Aranda and Colson Montgomery.
Let’s break them down.
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Jung | +559 | Jung has traded a lower strikeout rate for fewer home runs in 2026, yet he’s still mashed LHPs. In 68 plate appearances within the split, Jung’s registered an .838 OPS and a 140 wRC+. Meanwhile, Patrick Corbin has pitched to a 8.22 ERA in June and he’s surrendering 1.76 opponent long balls per nine. |
| Jonathan Aranda | +439 | Zac Gallen can’t function away from Arizona. Gallen owns a 6.98 ERA on the road, and he’s surrendered a whopping 2.09 opponent home runs per nine within the split. Aranda is slashing .299/.394/.521 with a .222 ISO against RHPs so far this season. |
| Colson Montgomery | +338 | Since getting called-up for his debut last year on July 4, Montgomery’s 41 long balls are the fifth-most of any player in MLB, trailing only Kyle Schwarber (59), Junior Caminero (43), Nick Kurtz (43) and Shohei Ohtani (42). Mitch Spence has allowed the 25 LHBs he’s seen at the MLB level this season to hit .421 with a .737 slugging percentage. |
In-depth analysis below.
Jung has been a completely different hitter so far in 2026. Coming into this season, Jung’s career strikeout rate was well over 26%, yet the former eighth-overall pick has taken massive strides, and is currently slashing .296/.355/.436 with a 123 wRC+ and just a 16.8% strikeout rate. That hasn’t translated to an elite amount of home runs, Jung only has eight, but the raw power is still there — especially against LHPs. In 68 plate appearances within the split, Jung’s registered an .838 OPS and a 140 wRC+. He’s an extremely dangerous bat in the middle of this Texas lineup. Meanwhile, the bubble has burst for Patrick Corbin in Toronto. The 36-year-old had long been outperforming his expected stats, but he’s completely hit a wall in June. In four starts in the month, Corbin has pitched to a 8.22 ERA and he’s surrendering 1.76 opponent long balls per nine.
Zac Gallen got a brief reprieve last night due to rain, but unfortunately for him and the Diamondbacks, the club’s roadtrip will continue this evening in Tampa Bay. Gallen’s been especially bad when having to toe the rubber away from Arizona in 2026. To wit, Gallen owns a 6.98 ERA within the split, and he’s surrendered a whopping 2.09 opponent home runs per nine. Maybe the smart money should be on Junior Caminero (+327) to go deep for the Rays on Friday. I mean, he did hit three in yesterday’s lopsided win over the Royals. Yet I’ll side with Aranda, who is slashing an uber impressive .299/.394/.521 against RHPs so far this season. The former All-Star also owns a .222 ISO and a 150 wRC+ in opposite-hand matchups. Gallen would be wise to pitch carefully to Aranda this evening — but I hope he doesn’t.
All Montgomery has done since coming to the big leagues is hit home runs. In fact, since getting called-up for his debut last year on July 4, Montgomery’s 41 long balls are the fifth-most of any player in MLB, trailing only Kyle Schwarber (59), Junior Caminero (43), Nick Kurtz (43) and Shohei Ohtani (42). The swing and miss element of his game remains a red flag, and Montgomery’s second percentile whiff rate (38.2%) is a serious red flag; yet that concern is currently being offset by 93rd percentile bat speed (76.2) and a .437 expected wOBA on batted ball events. On Friday, Montgomery and the White Sox will face-off with Mitch Spence, making just his third appearance of the season for the Royals. Spence currently sports a 13.50 ERA and he’s allowed the 25 LHBs he’s seen to hit .421 with a .737 slugging percentage. I can understand why he’s been used sparingly.
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