Brendan O’Sullivan previews Sunday’s WNBA matchup between the Phoenix Mercury and Atlanta Dream and provides his best pick.
The Mercury and Dream meet for the first time this season on Sunday, May 24.
Atlanta is a 5.5-point favorite and -225 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Phoenix is +185, with the game total set at 167.5.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Mercury vs. Dream game.
The Dream made some offseason changes, and are once again looking like a championship contender. Angel Reese joined the squad and is providing 11.8 points and 11.8 rebounds per game. The rest of the core—Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard and Jordin Canada—are playing excellent together. Gray leads the team with 22.8 points and Howard is averaging 18 points per game.
Atlanta is off to a 3-1 start, with its only loss coming against the reigning champion Aces. That game concluded 85-84 with Atlanta nearly completing the 19-point comeback. The Dream trailed 75-63 at the start of the fourth quarter and even took the lead with less than 40 seconds remaining. These gritty, comeback efforts go unnoticed in the standings, but it’s excellent preparation for future matchups.
The Mercury also made changes in the offseason, but they’ve been worse since. The team is coming off a WNBA Finals appearance in which it lost 4-0 to the Las Vegas Aces. Satou Sabally left for New York, leaving Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas as the two stars in Phoenix. Things seemed bright after the Mercury defeated the Aces 99-66 in the season opener, but it’s been downhill since.
Phoenix is 2-4 overall with some high-scoring games. Since the opener, they’ve allowed at least 88 points in four of five games with the one outlier being 83 points. At least, the offense is there, so these aren’t blowouts. Instead, it’s who can score the most before the buzzer with little defense involved.
These teams were both contenders last season, but the gap seems much larger in 2026. With both teams making significant offseason changes, the teams are in different spots—for better or worse.
Atlanta is averaging only 84.5 points per game, but that should skyrocket after this game against Phoenix. The Mercury will struggle to play defense and likely also struggle to score against the Dream.
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