A Lone Star State showdown is on tap this evening at Daikin Park. The Rangers (21-22) have been a difficult group to figure out. Despite rostering a terrific rotation, Texas has struggled due to lifeless hitting. It’s a different story for the Astros (17-28), a half-game out of last in the AL West. Houston possesses several terrific hitters, but injuries and lackluster pitching have held this group back. Which of these two rivals will pick up a much-needed win on Friday?

The Rangers are favorites (-112) over the Astros, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s matchup between Texas and Houston on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rangers vs. Astros prediction, preview

Texas’ record has been buoyed by staff aces Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. However, it’s fair to express some concern when it comes to the back end of this rotation. Jack Leiter, despite his high prospect pedigree, hasn’t blossomed into a star in the majors. Through 42.2 innings of work, the right-hander has posted a 4.85 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 49 strikeouts. The biggest issue for the third-year pro throughout his career has been command. Leiter has posted a mediocre 3.8 BB/9 ratio this season. Erratic control makes for unpredictable results on a game-to-game basis. Even during last week’s 4.2 scoreless innings against the Cubs, Leiter walked five batters.

Houston is only earning 3.53 base on balls per game this season, 18th-most in baseball. However, what the Astros lack in plate discipline, they make up for in hitting. It all starts with slugger Yordan Alvarez, one of the game’s most dominant batters. Through 45 games, the three-time All-Star is slashing .321/.429/.642 with 14 homers and 30 RBIs. The Cuban is putting up an MLB-best 198 OPS+. Alvarez is accompanied by four other lineup regulars with a wRC+ above 100. With that being said, those numbers don’t reflect the current state of this offense. The ‘Stros have scored just 28 runs over their last ten games, second-worst in the league during that stretch. In that time, they’ve accounted for a dismal .603 OPS.

On an otherwise disappointing or injured Houston rotation, Spencer Arrighetti has been a welcome sight. The third-year pro is living up to his potential, befuddling hitters with a blazing fastball and nasty off-speed pitches. Through five starts, the right-hander has delivered a 1.88 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 30 strikeouts (9.4 K/9). Still, it’s safe to say the 26-year-old has gotten somewhat lucky so far. It’s a small sample size, but Arrighetti’s 5.40 xERA makes him a major candidate for negative regression. That’s primarily a result of inconsistent command (5.3 BB/9).

There’s hope that Arrighetti can deliver another gem due to his opponents tonight. The Rangers would likely sit atop the AL West with even a league-average offense. Unfortunately, they’re averaging the fourth-fewest runs per game in baseball(3.77). With that being said, this is a completely different group away from the pitcher-friendly confines of Globe Life Field. Texas is generating 4.50 runs per game on the road, 11th-best in the majors. The Rangers are averaging the fifth-most walks away from home this season (4.09).

Rangers vs. Astros pick, best bet

A quick glance at the numbers for both pitchers suggests a decisive edge for the Astros. However, Arrighetti’s mediocre advanced metrics make this a wash at best on the mound. In fact, Leiter might be set up even better than his counterpart given Houston’s recent hitting woes. If the Rangers are simply respectable at the plate, they’ll be poised for a road win over their in-state rivals.

Best Bet: Rangers ML (-112)