Alex Hunter breaks down the upcoming first-round NBA Playoffs series between the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers.
The second-seeded Celtics will face the seventh-seeded 76ers in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. This will be the 23rd time these two Atlantic division rivals have faced each other in the postseason. The Celtics have dominated in these series with a 15-7 record.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Celtics are a -900 favorite to win this series while the 76ers are a +600 underdog.
After Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles in the Eastern Conference semifinals last May, most basketball fans chalked this season up as a “gap year” for the Celtics. However, Joe Mazzulla, Jaylen Brown and Tatum all had different plans. With Tatum sidelined, Brown held the fort down and played like an MVP, leading the Celtics to one of the top records in the league. Then, Tatum inspiringly made his return in early March, and the superstar has progressively looked more and more like himself in each game.
With Tatum back in the equation, Brown dominating, and counterparts like Payton Pritchard and Neemias Queta playing the best basketball of their careers, the Celtics are a very scary team that looks ready to contend for another title. Not to mention Mazzulla coaching his way to possibly his first Coach of the Year award. Boston is an impressive 13-3 in games Tatum has been active for, and he and Brown continue to look like the best duo in the NBA. With these two on the floor, the Celtics own a +16.5 net rating.
The Celtics did go 2-2 vs. the 76ers in the regular season, but Boston didn’t have Tatum active for any of these games, while Joel Embiid played in two of these contests for Philadelphia, so this data is rather irrelevant. For the season, the Celtics rank fourth in net rating, compared to the 76ers at 18th, so Boston is the clear favorite here.
The one concern for Boston is that Derrick White isn’t in great form heading into the playoffs. In his last 10, the guard is averaging just 10.6 points per game and shooting 38% from the field and 32% from beyond the arc. White’s defense has remained strong, and he still rates very well when on the floor, but the Celtics need him to regain his shooting form in the postseason if they want to raise banner No. 19. Getting by the 76ers shouldn’t be too much of a challenge even if White continues to shoot poorly, but maybe this is a matchup that could rejuvenate his game. Albeit with Tatum inactive, White averaged 19.8 points per contest vs. Philadelphia in the regular season.
The 76ers have dealt with plenty of adversity this season. While Tyrese Maxey has played like a superstar, ranking fifth in the league in points per game (28.3), Paul George was suspended for 25 games and Joel Embiid has been in-and-out of the lineup, suiting up only 38 times. This trio was intact last month, and Philadelphia was starting to look like a team no one wanted to face in the playoffs, but then, tragedy struck again last week, when Embiid had to have his appendix removed. The former MVP is out indefinitely and is unlikely to play in this first round series. Truly a brutal blow for this 76ers team that finally looked to be turning a corner. Now they face a Celtics team that is getting healthy and clicking at the right time.
The 76ers did take care of business in Tuesday’s Play-In matchup vs. the Magic, defeating Orlando 109-97, but the Magic have been a ticking time bomb, so the 76ers winning on their home floor wasn’t a big surprise. With Embiid inactive this season, Philadelphia is just 22-23. With the center off the floor, the 76ers’ net rating is an ugly -2.8.
The 76ers have Adem Bona and Andre Drummond to fill in at center with Embiid missing, but these two are limited offensive players and the team is weak on that side of the ball with their former MVP sidelined. Maxey will put up big numbers, and George and Kelly Oubre Jr. both will likely have some strong games. But the 76ers as a whole keeping pace with Boston’s elite offense is going to be an uphill battle. Rookie V.J. Edgecombe averaged 20 points per game vs. the Celtics in the regular season, and maybe he can cook up some heroics to complement Maxey, but this is Edgecombe’s first ever playoff series, so that feels like an unreasonable ask from the 20-year-old.
Now we know these teams a bit better. What is the best way to bet this series?
The Celtics are the clear favorite over the Embiid-less 76ers and Boston should win this series pretty easily. But, the Celtics have a tendency to get ahead themselves at times, and the 76ers stealing one game is realistic. In the Celtics’ six playoff series over the last two years, they have won four of these series 4-1.
The most likely outcome I see is Boston gets off to a 3-0 series lead and then, when the team thinks it has it all wrapped up, Philadelphia steals Game 4 at home, most likely thanks to a huge performance from Maxey. Afterwards, the Celtics will head back home and run out the 76ers out of the gym to advance. This season, Boston is 30-11 at home.
Game 1 of the Celtics vs. 76ers series will take place on Sunday, April 19 at 1 p.m. ET.
Game 1 will be held at TD Garden in Boston, as the Celtics hold the home-court advantage in the series.
This is a Best-of-Seven series between the Celtics and the 76ers. The first team to win four games will move on to the Eastern Conference semifinals.
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