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In the Eastern Conference Semifinals on Saturday, the Detroit Pistons hit the road with a 2-0 lead and head to Cleveland for Game 3 against the Cavaliers. The No. 1 seed took both of the first two matchups by 10 points, and with the pressure now mounting for the Cavs, it’ll be up to some underperforming stars to rise to the occasion and keep their team from falling into a hole they can’t climb out of today.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cavaliers enter as a 4.5-point favorite at home with -185 odds to win on the Moneyline. The game total is set at 211.5 combined points.
Here are the top Pistons vs. Cavaliers prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Saturday NBA Playoffs matchup.
The battle on the glass has been a crucial factor that’s swung the series so far. Here’s an excerpt from my prediction and pick for Game 3 that can put things into perspective:
The Pistons are ahead in this series with 43.5 boards a game compared to just 38.5 for the Cavaliers. The offensive glass shows a similar trend — Detroit averages 14.0 offensive rebounds to 10.0 for its opponent.
We saw the Pistons dominate the glass for most of the regular season, which hasn’t really changed in the postseason. They’re fourth among all playoff teams with 46.2 rebounds per game and are fifth in REB% at 51.4%. Jalen Duren isn’t scoring well, but he did pull down double-digit boards in each of the first two games against Cleveland. Frontcourt mates Ausar Thompson and Tobias Harris are also averaging 7.5 rebounds apiece in this series.
How does that relate to our prop bet here? Well, the Cavaliers’ own frontcourt has struggled on the glass. Evan Mobley had nine rebounds in Game 1 but just one board in Game 2. Jarrett Allen has also produced just three and seven rebounds as well. We’ll focus on the latter big man, with a pick from our own Bryan Armetta in his best NBA props for today earning an appearance as a top option here as well. Across Allen’s nine playoff games, he’s stayed under today’s line of 7.5 boards in seven of those appearances. While he did erupt for 15 and 19 rebounds in the other two games, that’s the exception and not the norm. Allen is averaging exactly 7.6 rebounds a game in the playoffs and sits at 6.3 boards across three outings against Detroit this season. I’m fading him today.
Cade Cunningham has received most of the shine during the Pistons’ postseason run, and for good reason since he’s averaging over 30 PPG. However, there needs to be more love for Tobias Harris, who has stepped up in a major way for this team.
The veteran had a bit of a reputation when Detroit acquired him a couple of years ago, but he’s been a huge part of the roster’s turnaround ever since. His production isn’t the most impressive, averaging a career-low 13.3 points and 5.1 rebounds per game during the regular season, but he’s been a steady veteran presence and reliable tertiary scorer. Now, his play has been even more crucial.
Jalen Duren is scoring just over 10 PPG in the postseason, a huge drop-off compared to his regular-season mark of 19.5 PPG. With the young star in a slump, Harris has picked up much of the scoring load himself. The veteran brings an average of 21.3 PPG into today’s matchup even despite poor shooting from beyond the arc. Harris has posted 20+ points in seven consecutive playoff games while showing shades of his younger self, who led the Los Angeles Clippers to the postseason years ago. He’s doing more than just putting the ball in the basket, though. Harris has posted 8.0 rebounds per game in the postseason, showing increased vigor on the glass to bring down seven or more boards in seven of his nine outings.
Those numbers add up to a grand total of 29.3 combined PTS + REB in the playoffs for Harris. With his combo line set at 23.5 PTS + REB — which he’s now eclipsed in eight straight games — I love getting the over on this one today.
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