It’s been a long, whirlwind season of football across Europe, but just 180 minutes now stand between Arsenal and its first Champions League title. The most prestigious club without Europe’s loftiest trophy could get there by beating Atlético Madrid in the second leg of the semifinal at home and taking down either Paris Saint-Germain or Bayern Münich in the final in Budapest on May 30.

The teams played out a 1-1 draw at the Estadio Metropolitano last Wednesday, which wasn’t a bad result for the Gunners, who will now have home-field advantage for the second leg at 3 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) at the Emirates Stadium in London.

In the first leg, only the teams’ stars found the back of the net, as Arsenal’s Viktor Gyökeres converted a penalty in the 44th minute and Los Colchoneros’ Julián Álvarez returned the favor in the 56th. Antoine Griezmann almost joined the score sheet in the 63rd minute, firing a shot into the crossbar, and Gyökeres almost converted a brace when the Gunners looked to have earned another penalty in the 80th minute. This second leg should be another cagy, defensive affair, but there should be at least one goal in regular time regardless.

Arsenal is a -160 favorite to win the return leg on DraftKings Sportsbook (-280 to advance to the final), and Atleti is +450 (+215 to advance). There are +300 odds that the tie will require extra time to decide.

Arsenal vs. Atlético Madrid Anytime Goalscorer Pick

The goalscorer odds reflect the Gunners’ status as a comfortable favorite, as each of the five players with the shortest odds to find the back of the net wear an Arsenal kit. Gyökeres (+170) leads the way, with Kai Havertz (+180) and Gabriel Jesus (+195) right behind him. Then, there are three players with between +200 and +300 odds to score, as the Gunners’ Eberechi Eze (+230) and Bukayo Saka (+260) are followed by Alexander Sørloth (+295), Los Colchoneros’ first representative. Sørloth, Griezmann (+320), and Álvarez (+380) are the only Atleti players with shorter than +500 odds to find the back of the net.

In a vacuum, the odds make sense. Arsenal’s defense is far superior to Los Colchoneros’, as it has allowed just six goals in 13 Champions League matches (five fewer than second-place Pafos, which was eliminated in the League Phase). The Gunners have also allowed the fewest expected goals per shot and the fewest goals from both set pieces and fast breaks while winning aerial duels at the fifth-highest rate. In the Champions League, they’ve allowed one or fewer goals in every match in which its regular back line of Gabriel and William Saliba played. They’re also coming off of a 3-0 win in the Premier League over Fulham.

Still, for value, these odds are too short. Arsenal has been reasonably gettable as of late in English competition, giving up two goals apiece to Manchester City twice, Southampton, and Bournemouth. While Los Colchoneros haven’t been stable in the back either, giving up at least two goals in 11 of their last 15 games, they’ve also scored at least two in nine of those matches, which cannot be said for the Gunners. Atleti ranks third in the Champions League in goals and 10th in shots on target per 90 minutes, and it’s been clinical with its opportunities, trailing only PSG and Barcelona in goals minus expected goals. It should be able to challenge Arsenal’s aerial dominance, given that it ranks third in headed goals, and its clinical nature on fast-breaks could effectively break the Gunners’ press. Los Colchoneros produced more expected goals than Arsenal in the first leg, managing 2.23 expected goals’ worth of chances, and while David Raya did an excellent job keeping them at bay, he’s not a guarantee to repeat his performance.

For Atleti, winter signing Ademola Lookman (+500) represents easily the best value. The Nigerian joined from Atalanta at the end of February, and since joining Los Colchoneros, he’s recorded seven goals in 19 matches (+171 implied odds). He’s also in particularly hot form, having netted thrice in his last six matches, and he’s started in every knockout match that Atleti has played, managing four shots (two on target) in the first leg. Lookman is historically a big-match riser; he scored the winner in Los Colchoneros’ quarterfinal triumph over the Blaugrana, the first equalizer in their Copa del Rey final against Real Sociedad, three during the Super Eagles’ Africa Cup of Nations run, and three in the final of Atalanta’s Europa League triumph over Leverkusen in 2024 en route to winning the African Footballer of the Year award.

Best Bet: Ademola Lookman Anytime Goalscorer (+500)