UPDATE: Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz has been scratched from tonight’s game. Jake Mangum will start instead.

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?

Baseball fans could find out tonight at 6:40 p.m. ET, when the Los Angeles Dodgers’ ultra-powerful offense meets Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes, one of baseball’s most-feared pitchers and a perennial Cy Young Award candidate despite a rough season so far (by his standards).

The Dodgers will send Eric Lauer — not exactly an ace — to oppose Skenes in the opener of a three-game set.

Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction, preview

Los Angeles had one rough stretch early in the season, losing 14 games in the span of 23 to drop briefly out of first in the NL West, but besides that, it has been basically untouchable, with 18 wins in its last 24 games. In fact, with a plus-133 run differential through 66 games, the Dodgers are on pace to finish with the sixth-best run differential since 1900. They’ve had the league’s best offense, posting an OPS 20 points higher than that of the New York Yankees; even though Mookie Betts is still below the Mendoza Line and offseason signing Kyle Tucker has been a major disappointment, Shohei Ohtani leads the National League in OPS and Andy Pages in both RBI’s and offensive WAR. Additionally, Los Angeles has the best staff ERA. Its rotation has posted a sub-3 ERA so far, and its bullpen — a major weakness last season — has held its own, ranking 11th in ERA. All in all, it’s been one of the most dominant seasons of the Dodgers’ dynasty.

Meanwhile, the Pirates have surprised. They finished just 71-91 last season, but so far in 2026, they’ve been above .500 since the start of April, though a sweep in this series would drop them back below that mark. Additionally, Pittsburgh has arguably gotten unlucky, since its plus-30 run differential is the third-best in the National League. The Pirates have made immense strides offensively; after finishing 2025 dead last in OPS, they rank sixth so far this season, as offseason signing Brandon Lowe and Oneil Cruz each have at least 14 home runs and highly-touted prospect Konnor Griffin has found his groove. Pittsburgh has taken slight steps back in both the rotation and the bullpen, as Mitch Keller and Bubba Chandler haven’t provided the desired rotational depth around Skenes and a couple of high-usage relievers have floundered, but it’s been good enough for the offense to carry it to wins.

Los Angeles isn’t countering Skenes with its ace. Instead, Lauer, who was acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays, will make his third start with the team. The southpaw did well in his first two starts with the Dodgers, combining for 10.2 innings, nine hits, and three earned runs, but he’s had an awful season overall, pitching to a 5.74 ERA after making eight appearances (six starts) with Toronto. Overall, advanced numbers paint an extremely poor picture of him, as he ranks in the bottom septile in eight of 13 Statcast categories. In particular, his inability to strike batters out should help mitigate the Pirates’ biggest weakness, given that they rank second in strikeouts, and his third-percentile ground ball rate should provide a respite for a team that has hit grounders at the third-highest clip. Despite ranking in the 66th percentile in chase rate, Lauer also issues lots of walks, and Pittsburgh has drawn the fifth-most free passes this season. Los Angeles’ strong defense behind him could be a saving grace, but the splits aren’t in his favor; he’s been slightly worse on the road throughout his career and the Pirates much better at home.

It goes without saying that, even in the worst season of his career, Skenes enjoys an advantage in the starting pitching matchup. He’s had a few uncharacteristic blow-up starts this season, giving up five earned runs on Opening Day and again on May 17, but a 2.83 ERA and 82:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio is still Cy Young-level stuff. Advanced numbers are still kind to Skenes; he ranks in the 97th percentile in expected ERA and the top decile in expected batting average, whiff rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, and barrel rate. Skenes’ biggest weakness is his 56th-percentile whiff rate, and the Dodgers have had some of the league’s best bat-to-ball skills, but even they will have a hard time getting to him. Los Angeles’ best hope is to extend at-bats (Skenes’ 77th-percentile chase rate is one of his worst attributes), hit the ball up (since he induces grounders relatively infrequently), and chase him early to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s bullpen instead. Fortunately for the Dodgers, Skenes has been slightly worse at home throughout his career (though still utterly dominant), and Los Angeles’ offense has been slightly better on the road.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates pick, best bet

Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates 1st Run (+105)

Los Angeles is an underdog for just the second time this season, and it’s because of the starting pitching matchup. Of course, the Dodgers will get to hit first in every inning, and Ohtani could score with one swing of the bat, but the Pirates are much better-suited to get to Lauer than Los Angeles is to Skenes.

Strong Lean: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (-117)

I don’t think Pittsburgh will hang 10 runs on Lauer or anyting — after all, the Dodgers have been baseball’s third-best fielding team and can take would-be runs off the board — but given how many relievers he went through in the teams’ 13-5 loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday, I’m not sure Dave Roberts is going to be in a rush to pull Lauer.