Sean Barnard previews Wednesday’s WNBA matchup between the Dallas Wings and the Golden State Valkyries and provides his best pick.
Tipping off as part of tonight’s six-game WNBA slate, the Dallas Wings will take on the Golden State Valkyries. This is the first matchup between these two youthful teams this season, with reasons for optimism surrounding both in the early stages.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Valkyries enter as narrow -2.5-point favorites and hold -155 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Wings hold +130 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 165.5.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Wings at Valkyries matchup.
The Dallas Wings limped to a 10-34 record last season and made some major changes over the offseason. The early results have been encouraging, as they enter with a 9-5 record thus far. Dallas picked up an impressive 96-66 win over the Las Vegas Aces in its previous game, and is 2-2 across its past four. On the season overall, the Wings have gone 9-5 against the spread, and are 5-9 to the over.
Odyssey Sims is the lone member of the Wings listed on the injury report and she will miss tonight’s game due to a left ankle injury. Paige Bueckers headlines the production with 19.0 points and 5.8 assists per game. Arike Ogunbowale contributes 15.0 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists of her own, while Jessica Sheppard adds 13.7 points and a team-high 11.6 rebounds. Azzi Fudd is the lone other player to average in double figures, while Maddy Siegrist and Aziaha James also play key roles.
Jose Fernandez’s squad is scoring 88.1 points per game, which ranks sixth in the WNBA. Dallas also ranks second in offensive rating, fifth in field goal percentage, and eighth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 82.1 points per game against the Wings, which ranks fifth in the league. Dallas also ranks fifth in defensive rating, 11th in opponent field goal percentage, and eighth in opponent three-point percentage.
The Golden State Valkyries had a respectable debut season last year in which they went 23-21 and got their first taste of postseason action. They are attempting to build off that, and have gotten off to a 9-5 start to the season. Golden State enters this matchup looking to extend a three-game winning streak, which came against the Los Angeles Sparks, Seattle Storm and Phoenix Mercury. On the season overall, the Valkyries have gone 7-7 against the spread, and they’ve gone over the total in nine of the 14 games played.
Gabby Williams headlines the production for Golden State, posting averages of 15.7 points and 3.7 rebounds per game. Veronica Burton adds 14.2 points and a team-high 5.7 assists per game, while Janelle Salaun is the lone other player to average in double figures with 13.8 points and 4.1 rebounds per game off the bench. Kayla Thornton, Kiah Stokes, Cecilia Zandalasini and Kaila Charles each also play key roles.
As a team, the Valkyries are scoring 84.6 points per game, which ranks ninth in the WNBA. They also rank fifth in offensive rating, 14th in field goal percentage, and fourth in three-point percentage, while launching the most perimeter shots in the league. Defensively, opponents are scoring 78.3 points per game against Golden State, which is the best rate in the league. The Valkyries also rank second in defensive rating, third in opponent field goal percentage, and 12th in opponent three-point percentage.
Both of these teams are playing good basketball of late. The Valkyries enter on a three-game winning streak and are looking to extend it. The Wings picked up an impressive 30-point win over the Las Vegas Aces in the previous game and have won six of their last eight games overall.
When push comes to shove in this matchup, expect the Valkyries’ defense to be the difference. Golden State is holding teams to a WNBA-best 78.3 points per game this season, and has not allowed more than 91 points in a game all year. They also have limited opponents to as few as 58 points in a matchup, and do an excellent job playing at a slow pace and winning the turnover battle.
There is certainly reason for optimism for what has been seen on the floor by this Wings team of late. But Dallas is still fully establishing their identity as the young talent continues to figure out how to click together. They are coming off arguably their most impressive defensive performance in the previous game, in which they limited the Aces to just 66 points. But they gave up 84 points to the Portland Fire before this and 100 points to the Minnesota Lynx two games prior.
If the Wings cannot keep the Valkyries’ offense in check, this game could get out of reach. Expect this to be how things play out with Golden State earning full confidence in the level of defense that should be expected from them. The Valkyries have not allowed a team to shoot above 49.3% from the field all season, and have limited opponents to below 40% shooting from the field in seven of the 14 games played.
Count on this matchup hanging in the balance for an extended stretch before the Valkyries are able to take full control in crunch time. The Wings should be riding high from their recent stretch of play, but the Valkyries have made more impressive offensive attacks look nonthreatening and expect Dallas to struggle to score at the necessary rate tonight. My lean would be toward the game total remaining under, but I am backing the Valkyries to extend their three-game winning streak and cover the 2.5-point spread tonight.
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