The WNBA Commissioner’s Cup is set in stone, and we won’t be seeing the Toronto Tempo or the Indiana Fever in the final. But there’s still plenty to play for. With both Eastern Conference squads in the thick of the playoff race, this is an awfully big game.

Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET. The Fever are 8.5-point home favorites with -425 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Tempo upset is priced at +330, with the game total set at O/U 177.5 points.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Tempo-Fever game.

Tempo vs. Fever Preview

One thing is for sure: Toronto Tempo games are awfully entertaining. They’re one of the most porous defenses in the league, but continue to find ways to generate offense. Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey have no problem getting a shot up, and have been one of the most prolific scoring backcourts in the league. Kiki Rice has impressed mightily as a rookie, but her injury threw cold water on things.

While offense hasn’t been much of a problem, Toronto is struggling to solve the defensive portion of the test. Other than Nyara Sabally, who has been a savvy acquisition, their frontcourt is not holding up. Out of 15 teams in the league, Toronto is 14th in defensive two-point percentage and 14th in total rebounding. When you lose the battle for possession and get diced up in the paint, it’s difficult to win consistently. Temi Fagbenle’s inability to stay healthy has been rough for the team’s build. If they want to continue the playoff chase, management will have to consider an upgrade or two at the deadline.

Indiana certainly boasts some backcourt scoring talent. Kelsey Mitchell nearly won MVP last season as her bucket-getting went into the stratosphere, and is working on her seventh straight season averaging 17-plus points per game for the Fever. Caitlin Clark is one of the most talented shot creators in the league, and despite her early struggles with efficiency, remains Indiana’s offensive engine.

On the defensive end, it’s the Aliyah Boston show. She’s one of the best rim protectors and rebounders in the league and gives her perimeter defenders a platform to be assertive. Indiana ranks fifth in total defensive rating and has an exceptional floor because of that defense.

So much of this matchup hinges on Boston and that defense. Toronto’s offense will be flying downhill trying to create paint pressure. Boston has to contain the drives and gobble up the rebounds. On the other end, Boston will have all kinds of mismatch opportunities, and will be counting on her guards to set her up in the post and on the roll. No pressure on the All-Star.

It’s all about the backcourts as well. Sykes is not only crucial offensively but also, as Toronto’s best perimeter defender, will be tasked with keeping Clark and Mitchell under wraps. If the Fever can poke at Mabrey on the defensive end, they’ll be able to find good shots. Clark is also awfully susceptible to attacks on the defensive end and will be picked on heavily by head coach Sandy Brondello’s offense.

Now we have a good idea what to expect from these teams. Who is going to come out the winner?

Tempo vs. Fever Pick, Best Bet

Buckets. Buckets Buckets. That’s what you’re going to see in this one. These starting backcourts alone combine for roughly 80 points, and there’s offensive talent all over these rosters. It may be closer than we expect, but it won’t be due to the defenses. Let’s ride with the over here for a tight Fever win.

Best Bet: Over 177.5 Total Points (-110)