Brendan O’Sullivan dives into his Game 1 prediction and pick between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs on Monday, May 18.
The NBA playoffs have been exciting, but this is what most fans were waiting for. The Thunder and Spurs are widely considered the two best teams in the NBA this season and were bound for a Western Conference Finals matchup.
Oklahoma City is a 6.5-point favorite and -245 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. San Antonio is +200 with the over/under set at 220.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for Game 1 between the Thunder and Spurs.
The Thunder haven’t lost a playoff game yet this year, but this is their big test. If there is a team to defeat Oklahoma City, it would be San Antonio. These teams met five times during the regular season, with San Antonio winning four out of five. Regular season wins and losses don’t matter in the postseason, but there’s real belief that Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs’ young core can compete with the Thunder in a seven-game series.
Game 1 will be in Oklahoma City, which obviously hands the reigning champions an advantage. They were 34-7 at home during the regular season, five games better than the Spurs’ road record of 29-12. How much will that play a role in Game 1? Probably not that much. The larger factors are rest and momentum. The Thunder last played on Monday, May 11. The Spurs finished their second-round series on Friday, May 15.
Both teams could have the advantage depending on who you ask. Oklahoma City needed the rest as Jalen Williams had been sidelined since injuring his hamstring in Game 2 vs. the Suns. He’s available for Game 1 thanks to a healthy amount of recovery time. Meanwhile, the Spurs have momentum, winning Games 5 and 6 against the Timberwolves in the second round. Sometimes a team just needs to get hot at the right time—that can outweigh any metric for the series. A concern, however, is De’Aaron Fox’s health. He’s questionable for Game 1 with ankle soreness.
At full strength, this should be one of the most exciting series of the playoffs. The Thunder are favored, but this series could go either way. Game 1 will be a tone setter.
The Thunder are 8-0 in the playoffs despite Williams playing just two games. That’s scary for the rest of the league, including the Spurs. This series should be close, but Oklahoma City should have no problem winning Game 1 at home after so much rest.
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