The San Diego Padres are hosting the Seattle Mariners on Thursday, with first pitch set for 8:40 p.m. ET/5:40 p.m. PT. Walker Buehler will take the bump for the Padres, facing off against Mariners veteran Luis Castillo at Petco Park. Looking at the odds, lines and Buehler’s strikeouts prop on DraftKings Sportsbook, here is a breakdown of how the 31-year-old could perform in his fourth outing of the season.

Walker Buehler Strikeouts Prop

DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Buehler’s strikeouts thrown line set at 3.5 for Thursday’s contest against the Mariners.

Through three starts this year, Buehler is 0-1 with a 4.97 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings and a 0.0 WAR. He posted game scores of 41 and 37 in his first two outings against the Giants and Red Sox – owning a 9.45 ERA and 1.950 WHIP to that point in the season – but bounced back in a real way on April 10. In a home showdown with the Rockies, Buehler tossed 6.0 scoreless innings while giving up three hits and zero walks. Buehler recorded three strikeouts in his season debut, then four in each of his next two outings.

Buehler was a two-time All-Star and two-time World Series champion with the Dodgers, only to have his career interrupted by injuries. And while he was able to string together a mostly-complete season in 2025, even notching double-digit wins, Buehler had a 5.45 ERA, 1.558 WHIP and -0.8 WAR during his time with the Red Sox. Still, Buehler went 3-0 with a 0.66 ERA, 1.171 WHIP and 0.9 WAR down the stretch with the Phillies.

Based on FanGraphs‘ Steamer model, Buehler is projected to go 5-7 with a 4.72 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 84 strikeouts across 17 starts, 10 relief appearances and 101.0 innings in the remainder of 2026. His 0.3 projected fWAR ranks No. 206 among MLB starters, while his projected 7.53 strikeouts per nine innings rank No. 175.

Walker Buehler picks, predictions

While Buehler only ranks in the 40th percentile with a 20.8% strikeout rate and the 49th percentile with a 25.9% whiff rate, his 58.3% ground ball rate ranks in the 90th percentile. After all, Buehler has averaged just 7.0 strikeouts per nine innings since missing the entire 2023 season – a far cry from his 9.7 mark from 2017 to 2022.

The Mariners, however, have struck out 180 times so far this season, which ranks fourth in the big leagues. Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and Leo Rivas all strike out at least 33% of the time, while Julio Rodriguez and Cole Young strike out in more than 25% of their plate appearances.

Buehler is 2-2 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in his career at Petco Park. Yes, most of that solid production came during his peak with the Dodgers, but it is still an environment that he is comfortable in where he routinely goes longer than 5.0 innings. Against this Seattle lineup, I feel good about Buehler reaching four strikeouts as long as he lasts into the fifth. But even if he doesn’t go that deep, Buehler had four strikeouts in 2.2 innings of work earlier this month. That showing came against a Red Sox team that has a strikeout rate 1.6% lower than the Mariners, so there shouldn’t be anything stopping Buehler from fanning more than 3.5 batters again on Thursday.

Best Bet: Walker Buehler over 3.5 strikeouts thrown (+105)