Blake Krass gives his prediction and pick for the epic quarterfinal match between Jannik Sinner and Rafael Jodar at the 2026 Madrid Open.
The 2026 Madrid Open is headed into the quarterfinals. The most highly anticipated match of Wednesday sees World No. 1 Jannik Sinner take on 19-year-old phenom Rafael Jodar.
Jannik Sinner is -1120 to win the match, while Jodar is listed at +670 on DraftKings Sportsbook to pull off the upset of a lifetime. The match begins at 10:00 a.m. ET.
The World No. 1, Jannik Sinner, is on a historic run at the moment. He has won four straight Masters 1000 tournaments dating back to the 2025 Paris Masters. Since losing to Carlos Alcaraz in the Australian Open to start the year, he has looked unstoppable. Of course, the absence of Alcaraz at this event has made Sinner a massive favorite and deprived us of another battle between the two greats. However, that gives a spotlight to a young Spaniard who is looking to follow in the footsteps of Alcaraz and Rafael Nadal before him.
Rafael Jodar burst onto the scene in 2026 as a future star in the sport. Jodar made it through the qualifiers and won his first Grand Slam match at the Australian Open. He then turned in a couple of solid performances on hardcourt before heading into clay season. Just like his idol Nadal, Jodar excels on clay. He won his first career ATP title at the Grand Prix Hassan II to start the clay season. He followed that up with a trip to the semifinals at the Barcelona Open, one of the best performances of his career, given the competition. At this Madrid Open, he has pulled off two excellent wins. He got the first top-10 win of his career over Alex de Minaur and defeated fellow young phenom Joao Fonseca. Now, he is looking for an early career-defining performance against Jannik Sinner.
My best bet for this match is for Jannik Sinner and Rafael Jodar to go over the total of 20.5 games played. Clay has been Sinner’s worst surface in his career. While he is still far and away the best player in the field, Sinner does not have his typical dominance on this surface. Meanwhile, Jodar is a clay expert. While Sinner is masterful and will likely find ways to make sure he wins both sets, Jodar should push him to the brink. It is not out of the realm of possibility for Jodar to steal a set, either, just like Benjamin Bonzi did in the first round against Sinner. This is an epic battle of the best in the world against a future star. The match should live up to the billing and be very competitive.
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