Chase Burns has a chance to lead the Reds over the Mets, while Rangers lefty MacKenzie Gore and Phillies veteran Zack Wheeler are also slated to take the mound Monday. Sam Connon shares his picks and predictions in regards to the three starting pitchers’ strikeout prop bets.
There are a handful of aces taking the mound Monday, including Rangers lefty MacKenzie Gore, Reds standout Chase Burns and Phillies veteran Zack Wheeler. Will Gore take advantage of a road-weary Twins lineup? Can Burns keep up his Cy Young pace? Will Wheeler be able to put his home run woes behind him? Here is our full breakdown of where we think each starting pitcher will wind up in the strikeout column.
Through 14 starts this season, Gore has gone for 6+ strikeouts six times. He failed to do so in his first four starts of May, but he is 2-for-4 in that category since Memorial Day weekend. He also owns a 2.86 ERA across those four starts, which is actually a tick above his 2.56 FIP over that same span. Gore has only allowed one home run in his last nine starts, all while the Twins’ team OPS is 33 points lower against lefties than it is against righties and 41 points lower on the road than it is at home. Minnesota’s 9.44 strikeouts per road game are good for the sixth most in the majors, too. Since joining the Rangers this past winter, Gore is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 0.890 WHIP and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings at home compared to his 1-5 record, 5.75 ERA, 1.697 WHIP and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings in away outings. For all of those reasons, I like Gore to string together a decently long outing Monday. And when Gore completes at least 5.0 innings, he reaches 6+ strikeouts at a 60% clip.
Burns is just one start removed from a streak of three consecutive starts with at least eight strikeouts. He bookended that stretch with a pair of seven-strikeout outings as well, so his recent floor hasn’t been too far off of Monday’s line. On the whole this season, Burns is 6-for-13 when it comes to notching 8+ strikeouts. When he has faced at least 20 batters, though, he is 6-for-11. Burns went on the road and led the Reds to a win over the Mets a few weeks back, punching out eight in the process. Returning home, I think he replicates that success, especially against a New York lineup that averages more strikeouts on the road than they do at Citi Field.
In his second start of the season, Wheeler racked up eight strikeouts against the Marlins. That feels like a bit of an outlier, though, since he has only cleared 6.5 in three of his nine starts this year. The 36-year-old righty has lasted at least 6.0 innings in four straight starts and still has only hit that strikeout mark once in that span. It’s not like Wheeler has been getting shelled, either, since he has a 2.52 ERA across those four outings, but his 5.10 FIP isn’t particularly encouraging. The underlying numbers suggest Wheeler has been getting a little lucky, and that could run out whenever. He has also exceeded 6.5 strikeouts in just one of his three home starts in 2026. The one factor Wheeler has on his side is the 37.5% whiff percentage he has forced, since that ranks in the 97th percentile across MLB. I don’t necessarily think Wheeler’s luck runs out Monday, but the looming threat is real enough to scare me away from any massive strikeout totals for the time being.
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Good luck with your MLB prop bets today!
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