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The San Antonio Spurs will host the Portland Trail Blazers tonight at 9:30 PM EST. The Spurs are leading this first-round series 3-1 and will look to close things out. The winner of this series will move on to play the winner of the Minnesota/Denver series.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Spurs are favored by 11.5 points and this game carries a total of 216.5 points.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite player prop bets for tonight’s Game 5 matchup between the Spurs and Trail Blazers.
Let’s just take a step back for a second. This is a market overreaction to a horrendous Scoot Henderson game. Henderson is averaging 13.5 PPG over the course of his career, and before Game 4, was having a productive series going for 18, 31, and 21 points. He’s playing big minutes and is still putting up a ton of shots. Even if we factored in his abysmal zero point game, he’s still averaging 17.5 PPG in this series while taking 13.3 FGA.
The Spurs’ defense is legitimately stifling with Victor Wembanyama in the lineup, but the DPOY can’t be everywhere at once (he’s still in many places at once, though). As long as Henderson maintains a similar workload with minutes pushing the high 20s at least, he’ll be in store for an easy path to 13.5 points tonight. Henderson also dropped 20 points in Portland’s last regular season game against the Spurs while shooting 7/20 from the field. It may be ugly, it may be inefficient, but Henderson can and likely will volume his way to 13.5 tonight.
We are all witness to one of, if not the, greatest defensive players of all time blossoming in front of our eyes. Wembanyama won the DPOY award this season unanimously, and has now led the league in three straight seasons in BPG. This season was his lowest-ever at 3.1, and the drop-off from last season’s 3.8 BPG is likely due to teams avoiding him rather than some kind of individual defensive fall-off. Wembanyama is averaging 4.7 Steals + Blocks over the course of his career, and we’re seeing what a locked-in Wemby looks like. While he didn’t get anywhere close to 5.5 in the first two games he played, he put up an enormous 11 in Game 3, and could easily hit 5.5 tonight against a team that he’s eager to close out at home.
What’s even more unfair is that the Spurs have another All-Defensive candidate in Stephon Castle. Castle is a bulldog who’s stronger than he looks, and he’s eclipsed 15 points in all four games thus far against the Blazers in this series, with his exclamation point appearing in Game 3, during which he went for 33 points on 10/18 shooting from the field and 10/11 from the line. Castle will continue to produce tonight against the reeling Blazers, and we can surely pencil him in 15+ points tonight. He’s averaging 15.7 PPG over his two seasons in the league and is averaging 21 PPG during this series.
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