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The UEFA Champions league is down to four. Several giants of the sport have already been eliminated, but next Wednesday, one more will go home. It feels off that one of Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Münich will have a chance to play in the final on May 30, given how dominant each team has been this season, but the same could’ve been said for Liverpool and Real Madrid, who were eliminated by these two sides in the quarterfinals.
The first leg of this much-anticipated semifinal will kick off at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) at the Parc des Princes, with the return scheduled for next Wednesday at the same time in Münich. The winner across two legs will advance to the final, where they’ll face either Arsenal or Atlético Madrid in Budapest.
Given how strong both of these teams are in the attack — they’re tied for the competition lead with 38 goals each, although Paris has played two more matches — it’s a near-certainty that there will be multiple goals scored, with the over-under set for 3.5. Several players are solid bets to find the back of the net, but I’ll narrow down the market to my favorite bet below.
Les Parisiens are +135 favorites to win the opening leg on DraftKings Sportsbook (+110 to advance to the semifinals), and Bayern is +175 (-135 to advance). There are +290 odds that the teams will head back to Bavaria level.
With the match expected to be competitive and high-scoring, it’s not a surprise that several players on both teams have relatively short odds to net at least once. In fact, there are seven different players with shorter than +200 odds of scoring, with five playing for PSG and two for Die Roten. Bayern’s leading man, Harry Kane (+115) — a heavy favorite to win the European Golden Shoe — has the shortest odds, but the three players with the next-shortest odds all play for Les Parisiens: Ousmane Dembélé (+145), Gonçalo Ramos (+155), and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (+170). Kane’s backup, Nicolas Jackson (+175), follows that trio, and PSG’s French wing duo of Bradley Barcola and Desiré Doué both have +180 odds of scoring.
Any of these players has the talent to score, but neither team’s defense will make it easy. Among the 36 teams who participated in this season’s Champions League, both of these sides rank in the top 12 in expected goals allowed per match and the top five in goals allowed. Paris’ defense is probably slightly better overall, since it has allowed fewer shots on target per match and won both ground and aerial duels at higher rates, but I trust Manuel Neuer slightly more than I do Matvei Safonov, even though the Russian has kept three clean sheets in a row during the knockout phase. Both teams operate high presses, and Die Roten have attempted more through balls while getting caught offsides less frequently, so I trust them to be the first to break PSG’s back line.
Among Bayern players, Kane would be the obvious call, given that he’s scored in 14 of his last 15 matches in all competitions, but there are some other players worth considering for value. Díaz has scored thrice in his last six matches and didn’t play the full 90 minutes in each of the exceptions, so at +220, he could be excellent value. Additionally, Jackson has netted in each of his past four games, starting up front in place of Kane, who’s rested in each of the past three Bundesliga games to prioritize his fitness for the Champions League and the World Cup this upcoming summer. Kane is a solid bet, but Díaz ever-so-slightly edges out the Englishman for his value: while Kane could be stifled by Marquinhos and Willian Pacho, two of the world’s best center-backs, Díaz should be able to get past Achraf Hakimi. Though Hakimi is reasonably considered the world’s best right-back, he’s more of an attacking-oriented wing-back than a pure defender, and in a match between arguably the two best teams in the world, an above-average stopper can still be a weak link.
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