Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Sunday’s FIFA World Cup match between the Netherlands and Japan.
Six of the eight group winners in the 2022 World Cup were relatively chalky, as five were won by Pot 1 teams and the sixth was won by the Netherlands, which would’ve been the best of the Pot 2 teams had No. 51 Qatar not earned a Pot 1 spot as a host.
Japan was one of the surprises, as the Samurai Blue topped a group featuring Spain, Costa Rica, and Germany before falling to Croatia on penalties in the Round of 16. This time around, Japan has high expectations as easily the strongest team in Asia. Mere advancement out of the group stage is no longer considered a success for the Samurai Blue.
Japan’s 2026 World Cup journey will begin at 4 p.m. ET (3 p.m. local) on Sunday in Dallas with a Group F matchup against the Netherlands.
The Orange are -105 favorites to take all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Samurai Blue are +265. There are +250 odds that the teams will share the points.
Below, I’ll break down this highly-anticipated match and provide my favorite bet.
Japan was more dominant than the Netherlands throughout World Cup qualifying, but the depth on the Asian continent is less notable than that in Europe. Either way, the Samurai Blue were undoubtedly impressive, scoring 54 goals and conceding just three across 16 total matches and dropping points only twice by drawing once with Australia and losing once. They’ve also had strong form in friendlies. The Netherlands had a strong performance in European qualifying, scoring 27 goals and conceding four across four matches and finishing 6-2-0, with a pair of draws against Poland the only blemishes on its record. The Orange scheduled difficult friendlies against four teams also in this tournament’s field, winning twice, drawing once, and losing to Algeria.
On paper, the Netherlands — a three-time winner — has the better side. Even without injured right back Jurriën Timber, the Orange have among the best defenses in the world, with Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk and Tottenham’s Mickey van de Ven manning the middle and one of the Premier League’s most promising young goalies, Bart Verbruggen, standing strong between the sticks. All in all, they allowed the seventh-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes and the seventh-fewest goals per shot on target throughout UEFA qualifying. However, the Netherlands has some questions in the front, as lone striker Memphis Depay, a former Barcelona and Atlético Madrid man, now plays for Brazilian side Corinthians, where he has just one goal in six matches. In addition to Memphis, Cody Gakpo and Donyell Malen each added four goals during qualifying, and Malen also had 14 goals in 18 matches after moving to Roma in the winter. Brian Brobbey didn’t play in qualifying, but he’s coming off of a solid season for Premier League over-achievers Sunderland. The Orange love to control possession, but compared to some of the other giants of Europe, they weren’t that clinical, managing only the 10th-most shots on target per 90 minutes. Additionally, they were relatively undisciplined, committing the fifth-most fouls per 90 minutes among teams to qualify.
If any Japanese side is good enough to take advantage, it’s this one. The Samurai Blue are experiencing arguably the most talented generation in their history, as just three players on their World Cup roster play domestically in the archipelago, and several players are contributors at the world’s best clubs. Zion Suzuki had a 71.1% save percentage for Serie A side Parma, making him one of the more valuable young goalies in the world, and striker Ayase Ueda won the Eredivisie Golden Boot. All in all, Japan has a strong attack, as Ueda will be partnered by Daizen Maeda, whose late-season heroics helped lift Celtic to the Scottish Premiership title, as well as Ritsu Doan, a regular starter in the Bundesliga. It’s no surprise that the Samurai Blue ranked second in shots on target, on-target percentage, and goals per shot on target during Asian qualifying. They also allowed the fewest shots, shots on target, and goals per shot on target thanks to a strong defense that includes Bayern Münich’s Hiroki Ito and Sint-Truiden’s Shogo Taniguchi. Japan is dealing with an injury crisis, as three of its best players (Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma, Liverpool’s Wataru Endo, and Monaco’s Takumi Minamino) are all out for the tournament, but it has the depth to compensate. It also plays extremely disciplined football.
Without Mitoma, Endo, and Minamino, the Samurai Blue don’t quite have the juice to become the second-ever Asian nation to make a World Cup semifinal, but this game should be extremely competitive. Japan’s back line brings a strong mix of talent and experience, and its compact formation should allow it to handle the Netherlands’ lone-striker setup. Additionally, I back Maeda to be able to take advantage of Timber’s absence on the right side of the Orange’s defense. I don’t expect the Samurai Blue to win, given that they didn’t generate many set pieces in qualifying and aren’t well-suited to take advantage of the Netherlands’ indiscipline, but a draw holds some value. The Orange’s superior defense will allow them to control possession and sneak one past Suzuki, but Japan’s attack is simply in good form.
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